GREY:XEBEQ - Post by User
Post by
Ciaoon Apr 13, 2022 10:13am
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Post# 34600003
TD Flash Note - calling BS
TD Flash Note - calling BSCalling BS, he changed his EBITDA guidance without changing rev forecasts to account for the SCS MOU?
TD View: In our Xebec Investor Day note (full report), we incorporated this large compression order into our 2022 and 2023 EBITDA estimates of $1.7 million and $9.9 million, respectively, as we believed that with high conviction, this MOU would be converted into an order and, therefore, we view this announcement as a confirmation of our view. As a result, we are not making any changes to our estimates at this time.
I don't see how rev from SCS MOU was incorporated, here are the forecasts after Q4 was reported and after Investor's Day
after Q4 Estimates (C$)
Year 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
Sales ($mm) 56.5 125.9 193.5 222.0
Sales ($mm) (old) – 122.1 193.4 219.9
EBITDA ($mm) (27.8) (11.7) 10.5 21.2
after Investor's Day
just look at the old and new sales est., marginal increase in 2022 and 2023 rev., doesn't add up to about $100M USD from the MOU), he adjusted EBITDA but not rev in his model?
Estimates (C$)
Year 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
Sales ($mm) 56.5 125.9 189.9 232.9
Sales ($mm) (old) – – 193.5 222.0
EBITDA ($mm) (27.8) (11.7) 1.7 9.9
EBITDA ($mm) (old) – – 10.5 21.2