Crane Co T.CR

Primary Symbol: CR Alternate Symbol(s): CXT

Technology Scientific & Technical Instruments

Crane Company is a manufacturer of engineered components for mission-critical applications focused on the aerospace, defense, space and process flow industry end markets. Its segments include Aerospace & Electronics, Process Flow Technologies, and Engineered Materials. The Aerospace & Electronics segment supplies critical components and systems, including original equipment and aftermarket parts, primarily for the commercial aerospace, and the military aerospace, defense and space markets. The Process Flow Technologies segment is a provider of engineered fluid handling equipment for critical applications. The Engineered Materials segment manufactures fiberglass-reinforced plastic panels and coils, primarily for use in the manufacturing of recreational vehicles, truck bodies and trailers (Transportation). It also designs and manufacturers multi-stage lubrication pumps and lubrication system components technology for critical aerospace and defense applications.

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Crane Co > Current Price $7.00 NYMEX

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Comment by gonatgasgoon Apr 13, 2022 2:26pm

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Post# 34601274

RE:Current Price $7.00 NYMEX

Mathew,

I agree with your points. All I can add, is that someone could hedge the next 12 months (April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023), and get U$7 at Henry Hub, $6 at AECO and I am not too sure what you can get for condensate.

At current strip, for the next 12 months, Crew could generate almost $400M of AFF based on the sensitivity analysis figures in the presentation. This is assuming production of 32,000 boe/d. Many believe they are producing more than that, but we will have to wait until early May.

How much better could it be?

sportstermathew wrote: Lets discuss and analyse what most think the current price of $7 NYMEX means to Crew and other NG producers like PEY etc.

We all know there are different markets at different prices and some have left AECO like PEY other than small positions to keep things open.

First the 1st Quarter numbers have to look much better than 4th quarter numbers, but maybe no where near current prices will take us. 1st quarter is done and we know how much positiveness this will bring once earnings come out. I think as the larger companies report they will be the main drivers with higher numbers, debt repayment, and dividend increases. This is what is going to move the smaller firms.

So here we are almost mid month April, 1/6th through the 2nd quarter with prices at $7US today having moved up consistently. Any company that has sold previously has sold for less or hedged for less in all likelyhood. This is normal. Unless you have a storage facility for NG you can't just fill up the tanks and hold off.

Every day as far as I am concerned with prices over $4 US this is fantastic news for each and every NG producer. Anything over $4 is just gravy. Whether this will be all year long, and more is anyone's guess. As the LNG industry grows the worldwide prices will start to average out, with NA NG going up and European holding steady or going down slightly.

Add in extra production for CR especially, 10% or more for PEY and others as much or more too. Wells can be paid off much more quickly, many within a year or less thus won't require more borrowing.

Restrictions are of course egress issues, capacity constraints for NG processing, if you own your own plants and can expand over time this is all great. If you can't then you are stuck but at least getting current record pricing.

Supply constraints are another major issue with manpower shortages or wage price inflation on top.

As with every company there are always issues.

All your thoughts on the above?