RE:RE:RE:Miniscule changes to hedgebook March to AprilI see....
May I join you down in the rabbit hole?
I first must say it will be difficult to follow you, if you don't make the basic distinction between
natural gas and liquids production, like you've always done in the past.
They are two different beasts.
There is a 15% difference between mcf and GJ at Peyto.
In relation with 20% of unhedged production for the next two quarters, it is substancial.
I don't see how they can average 106k boe/d (or more) in total production for Q2&Q3, using 5 rigs.
There is a full time operating rig missing!
According to the Corporate Presentation from Apri 13th:
For Q2 & Q3: 500 000 Gj/d in Natural gas production is fixed and its production will average 620k Gj/d at most.
In mcf/d, dividing by $1.15:
435k mcf/d hedged on total 540k mcf/d total production. Total floating (bacon): 105k mcf/d or 20%..
Difference with your scenario: 172k mcfe/d - 105k mcf/d = 67 mcf/d.
I take it you imply your 172k mcfe/d includes total liquid production, hegded and unhedged.
I assume 12 500 boe/d in average liquid production for Q2&Q3 or 75 000 mcfe/d.
There we go, I think I've found the rabbit!
Winter 22/23 looks more promissing with only 60% (sigh...) of production hedged.