RE:Monday trading in Canada and OTC in US will be interesting I think there is potential for the drilling order to change.......depeneding on how the 3 Royston wells get on (ST and Deep and Krakken).
At this moment in time, Ortoire will be online with 100mmscf/day of gas by end of 2022.
However, gas is "low profit" for TXP with current oil prices.
So.......why bother drilling Casca B and C ? That means more spend on production facilities, more spend on wells and for low profit gas.
If SideTrack, Deep-1 and Krakken all deliver oil - this can be produced immeadiately via EWT, for immeadiate higher profit than gas. So why both ramping up Cascadura now ? With gas pricing reviewed 5 years from commencement of first flow (which will be Coho in May)........better keep as much has in the ground and extract more oil if that is an option.
So I think they will be very coy about drilling plans until they get the EIA approved, and even then, depending on ST and Deep and Krakken results - everything might change later this year.
I expect the following :
Initial plans :
2 x Coora
Royston-1 SideTrack (ST)
Rosyton Deep-1
Krakken-1
2 x Casca B
Bur it may change to:
2 x Coora
Royston-1 SideTrack (ST)
Rosyton Deep-1
Krakken-1
2 x Casca B
Rosyton-2
Royston Deep-2
Krakken-2
If the option is there to produce more oil, over gas, I am sure that TXP will concentrate on oil while the price is high......and can fall back on gas in 2023 or 2024 if energy prices collapse.......as at that point TXP might have a fixed gas price which is more than actual gas prices. Nobody can predict energy prices, but TXP now can either produce more oil while oil prices are high, with a fall back positon to produce more gas should energy prices collapse next year or 2024.
It gives them a level of "insulation" from energy price movements.
So I think currently they are simply "sitting on their hands" while the cash balance goes up every month with legacy oil production.........and are saying to the T&T governmetn - approve the EIA or we are doing nothing more - only when the EIA is approved will we start planning more drilling.
Once they have the EIA in the bag, then they can use this as leverage, they can concentrate on higher profit instant oil production via EWT and expand gas production as and when and if they want to.
Under T&T oil laws........any new discovery oil well can go onto EWT for an unlimited amount of time, so any oil well drilled can go directly onto EWT and stay on EWT for years.....production oil and profit.