RE:RE:RE:Kakwa is HappeningYou are going to love this post. Forgot to mention on your comment about scale is relevent and ARC needs to steip it up. Didn't management improve the scale immensely with the VII combination; albeit with some warts that you harp on as if it was current managements decisions.
Fact 1 VII carry overs. Given the massive increase in prices, how many companies are making money with their hedges? Also, give us your opinion if anyone, not just ARC, should be hedging any production now, if so what % of production. It is easy to complain with the benefit of hindsight.
Fact 2 240,000 boe/day, not a fact if looking at annual numbers. 2019 203,000 2018 202,600 2017 175,000 all from the annual statements. Also, it was VII management that reduced production, read below for facts.
2020 (VII FS) did not talk about the boe/day and but I found this: "The report was also updated for changes to estimates, assumptions and conditions that were present as at March 31, 2020, including revised price forecasts
and the impact of the Company's decision to slow the pace of development of the Kakwa River Project in the near term in response to lower commodity prices."
What could all O&G companies have done with the money from their hedging losses. Hindsight is a great benefit.
Fact 3 VII warts and glad you see management is doing something about it.
Fact 4 "Fact"? Speculation on your part. You haven't a clue what is going on, really, you don't. Neither do I.
Fact 5 The current price is a fact and management is doing something to increase production. Will be interesting to see what you have to say about hedging at these prices. Has ng reached its peak or is it going to $10.
MyHoneyPot wrote: I am sorry, but i guess that you have to let the facts speak for themselves.
Fact 1
A company with the largest hedging losses in the entire patch, is realy a good example of what not to do, and the fabrication by the posters that those hedges were all in place I no their wrong, show me facts, stop with the lip service.
Fact 2
Kakwa had a history of 240,000 boe/day of production, and it alway has been and always will be ARX highest netback property, Arx is still lagging, what do you think they could of done with 1.2 billion lost on hedging in 2021, do you think it would of impacted share prices, all $2 a share in FCF lost. Expect them to repeat in hedging loss leadership in 2022.
Fact 3
Arc did recogonize to their credit that they had an entire gas plant built that no one could explain the rational of having, even the seven generation management that were there could come up with rational regarding the plant. Now they have come up with some ideas according to shaleguy to repurpose and this could have a big impact on growing Kakwa production into the future. Good on them, its been 3-4 years in the making.
Fact 4
Attachie has been a 7 year distraction consuming capital, and still to this day has no first nations agreement and no start date, treaty8 struggling. Really why are they so eager to throw money at a project that has no first nations agreement. My past experience in these matters says that does not work, a recipe for failure, and these issues are alway very messy.
Fact 5
Perhaps with now
$7.35 U.S. Natural Gas a little more take away at Kakwa may of been a good thing.
I think that old ARX was run by the CFO and CEO and really not a lot of other senior management, they could not handle Holt who was likely a real COO, he stepped on bibby toes a few to many times is my guess.
Kakwa is the future of ARX resouces and as Kakwa goes so will ARX Resources. That is the only reason i think ARX is investable at all.
IMHO