RE:I'd like your opinion on the following scenarioSince oil prices are largely controlled by artificial supply constraints through OPEC coordinating their pricing there is a lot of geopolitical issues that could emerge and lower the price of oil.
Right now there is 3 large oil producers under severe Western sanctions: Russia, Iran and Venezuela. If the three were to thaw relations with the West it could lead to a huge new supply of oil on the markets pushing the price down.
I would say Iran is the most likely to cause problems. Since most Western countries besides maybe Norway and arguably Canada want oil prices as low as possible they might consider mending fences with Iran. The problem is that USA is allied to Saudi Arabia who intensely hates Iran and is already annoyed with American foreign policy failures (in their eyes) in the Middle East over the past few years. Saudi Arabia has recently sold oil for Chinese Yuan which shows they are getting a bit rocky with USA. If USA miscalculated and made peace with Iran under the wrong circumstances it could lead to Saudi Arabia breaking with OPEC and flooding the oil market again as Saudi Arabia can stand much lower oil prices than Iran which has been under severe financial strain in recent years.
Back during the Cold War, Pakistan was allied with USA and India was more closely aligned with USSR (while remaining neutral). USA shifted to be more closely aligned to India as Pakistan became unreliable in the 2000s by supporting the Taliban and now India is closer to USA, hates China and is friendlyish with Russia. Pakistan is now extremely close with China and unfriendly with USA. This could repeat with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both are far from USA in ideology as they are both theocratic and authoritarian so it would be possible that Saudi Arabia could turn hostile to USA and try to destabilize other countries with oil prices.
That's just one theoretical scenario. It's impossible to say what will happen over the next 20 years geopolitically. Things seem to be much more rocky than they were. It could also work in the opposite direction with a hot war breaking out in the Middle East raising oil prices even more.
I do think that most Western countries will ban new gasoline/diesel car sales by 2030, 2035 tops. The infrastructure will probably emerge much faster than we anticipate and the oil demand in the west will decline really fast which could lead to the West not caring about what happens in the Middle East and the rest of the high oil producing countries as it won't be as big on consumers minds.
Essentially, I don't know, haha. Inflation and fiscal tightening are much more likely near term catalysts.