RE:RE:Rating update copied from TDWBDI ;>O I agree with you 100 percent. Covid over blown in China , air travel , going nuts , summer driving season even with high gas prices will be incredible because people want to camp , do summer things and this is the first time in a few years we can actually have close to normal vacations.
Bearish news would not be the end of the war. This would be good , it would be sanctions being dropped . Worry that his ( Putin final move somehow involves these sanctions being dropped for some sort of peace agreeemt.
Anyone who thinks this wasn't thought about , this entire mission , what every single reaction would be , and every single reaction on those reactions is just simple minded.
However sanctions I believe are going to get tighter long before there is any relief given back to Russia , so this year , this calendar year , we are in for high oil prices , gas prices and all commodity pricing.
The upcoming recession , or almost recession it's going to be so close , it's a slow down at best. Won't happen , or affect us in North America until all inventories are built up. Can't lower inflation with out competion. Just like oil won't go down until there is perceived over supply.
So I am not a economist , but I see this taking the next 6 to 12 months. So things ( inflation ) begins to show signs in 6 months of slowing down , and in one year I think things might be a little dark, due to the tightening of interest rates and I beleive a fairly large sell off in markets other than commodities , meaning money will be horded , or extremely conservatively invested , so to not stoke inflation.
So yes , I see closer to 20 dollars a share at peak. I will call for 16 to 18 myself before the year is out.
Doest mean I still own my holdings. There is a point where given I can't afford the mental break down I will have of I didn't take my profits off the table , so I won't be owning this at the prices I am suggesting. Somewhere between here and there , I will be mylsef one of the cash horders.
I will be getting my self at most a GIC lol. I feel strongly there is going to be a large large correction in the markets as I said earlier , and I will be looking for a value investment.
I remember you could pick up bank stocks in the financial crisis at 10% plus dividends. I KNOW OR BELEIVE IT WONT BE THIS BAD , but o strongly believe there is a day where the piper will be calling.
Tell me how you can go into a world wide pandemic , print money to cover up the pain , only to see markets climb to the highest levels or record levels , and this is all normal. ?
So , like everything in this world there is a pill , that fixes a headache or better yet a tooth ache for example , printing money was the pill tylonel , but it masked the pain or real issue , that TOOTH will still need to be pulled one day.
Sure they will try and soften the landing. However there is a large free fall coming as in any fall , before the parachutes might help slow it down.
You know I was 11 for most of 1982. So maybe it's because I saw what this did to parents , that we actually ate soup for days , that we couldn't sell the house , to escape the 17 percent interest rates ( we got through this as a family ) but maybe it's because I lived through this , I am over reacting in my thinking , so because of this I am calling for a down turn somewhere in between the early 80s inflation nightmare and where we are now
If you read all of this , I apologize! Lol lol
Hang on for while though we have some more easy climbing in share price , 12 dollars before May 12
Good luck all
Craig