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Tudor Gold Corp V.TUD

Alternate Symbol(s):  TDRRF

Tudor Gold Corp. is a Canada-based precious and base metals exploration and development company. The Company has claims in British Columbia's Golden Triangle (Canada), an area that hosts producing and past-producing mines and several large deposits that are approaching potential development. The Company has a 60% interest in Treaty Creek gold project, located in northwestern British Columbia, which is host to the Goldstorm Deposit, a large gold-copper porphyry system, as well as several other mineralized zones. The Company's Treaty Creek property covers an area of approximately 17,913 hectares.


TSXV:TUD - Post by User

Comment by jcw604on Apr 19, 2022 11:29pm
162 Views
Post# 34615386

RE:RE:RE:RE:Treaty Creek Status...

RE:RE:RE:RE:Treaty Creek Status...Thanks for the info. Assuming their cost per oz is 950, and their 30m oz should be able provide cash 30 billion cash in 30 years. However, their bottom line must be far less than a billion per year. Otherwise, they would be able to recover the capital spent in 5 years. What is their financial numbers currently?
rockport1 wrote: To use Seabridge as an example.  They have well over 30 million ounces gold in their PFS, producing almost a million ounces of gold annually (if I recall, 930k gold plus Cu, Ag, etc).  However, for all those resources, the NPV is only U$1.5 billion.  

They also have a huge issue with the initial capital costs at $5 billion.  Usually projects need an NPV at least as high as the initial capital costs; SEA's $1.5 B NPV versus $5 B Capital is very, very poor. This is why it has been extremely difficult to sell. 

Tudor needs to demonstrate they have better economics than SEA, not just add ounces. On one hand, SEA is good because it is bringing more eyeballs to the Golden Triangle and Treaty Creek. However, the downside is the very poor economics of KSM, acting as an anchor on similar projects such as Treaty Creek. 

Based on grades and especially logisitics, I argue the economics of Treaty Creek will be far superior to KSM.  However, until a minimum of a PEA is produced, that is only an educated guess.  

rockport1 wrote: This is a good point Marcus.  IMO it is not a big deal whether they do an "interim" RE or not. It will save some money by not doing it.  Conversely, if they did an "interim" RE, I believe it wouldn't move the share price much, if at all.

I think the big (share moving) money is less concerned about whether they are at 30, 40 or 50 million ounces since they are so high already.  Once we are beyond 30 million ounces, the discounted NPV of those ounces drops considerably because mining them is so far in the future.  What is more important at this stage is the economics of those ounces, specifically the initial ounces mined.

Thus, I believe the delination or discovery of a high grade core, or a new high grade zone at surface is a major potential share price driver. The other is to put some economics on the ounces; i.e. the PEA.  Oh, and of course any sustained run in the price of gold over $2000.


MarcusA wrote: Excellent, many thanks.
Just one question: Though I agree that an updated RE would be "interim", I fail to see why it does not make sense to have it? It would proof progress, maybe draw further attention, and so on.?
rockport1 wrote:

Just summarizing my thoughts on some comments here lately.

Goldstorm Resource Estimate & PEA
My expectation is we will not see an updated Goldstorm RE until 2023 after most 2022 assay results are in.  For short term shareholders, this might not be good news. For longer term holders, this is excellent news.

The maiden resource estimate was important to give the deposit some initial context. An updated RE would clearly only be "interim" until the limits of Goldstorm are found. At that point, it would make sense to move towards a PEA. So this delay is good news, a first world problem, if you will.  A PFS would likely take a further 1-3 years after the PEA, depending on how much is discovered on the adjacent zones.

Tudor is extremely aggressive attempting to find those limits this season.  Ten drill rigs will be on Treaty Creek this spring including those four 2300m capable deep rigs! Lots of news to come.


Perfect Storm, Eureka, Calm Before the Storm, etc.
With those ten rigs, it's not clear how many will be attacking these targets, This will be fluid depending on how the Goldstorm drilling progresses. If Goldstorm continues continues to extend, these deposits will see less work. An unfortuate affect of Goldstorm success. 

However, Calm Before the Storm should get initial attention due to the lower elevation and available water supply. Any critical early results (high-grade anyone?) could see CBS manage to retain a drill or two.  If other deposits hit significant high-grade (Eureka?), it might also push up higher on the priority list.

Note, that major positive results on these (currently called) satellite deposits could delay any PFS and possible PEA of Goldstorm because they would have important impacts on the pit, tailings, staging, logistics of a mine plan. Another potential unfortunate side-effect of success.
 

Seabridge is Good
Seabridge is garnering much attention recently, especially now that Jim Rickards has recommended them in his newsletter.  Excellent news for Treaty Creek, as this surely will bring more eyeballs onto the Golden Triangle, and specifically Treaty Creek.  Although SEA is far ahead of Treaty Creek in development, the logistical advantages will become harder and harder to ignore.

As Treaty Creek continues to see successful drilling, it will also become evident that the magnitude of resources on the property could potentially rival KSM+, with higher grades and stronger economics.  

Tudor Share Price & Financing
One important consideration of Tudor is that Walter Storm and Eric Sprott together hold a controlling interest. This is great news for long term holders and will prevent an early (unfriendly) takeover.  However, it does put some restrictions on demand in the short term.  This could also require lower priced financings than would be the case without the current ownership structure.  Again, a suffer now for bigger gains in the future. 

For AMK and Teuton shareholders, this is ostensibly a good factor, as an early takeover would likely result in a shorter free-ride and ultimate take-out price for them.

Anyway, those are some of my thoughts. Would appriciate any feedback and  comments.
 


 






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