Copper vs. Oil... not a case of one over the other I've been a shareholder in IVN for nearly 2 years now, having taken a relatively small position of 10,000 shares on April Fools Day in 2020. Considering that I was able to join the fray at an average cost of $2.29, I'm feeling pretty happy with the present shareprice!
I like the prospects for IVN and will in all probability continue to hold my position for some time. However, I don't think that copper is going to be the "be all - end all" as some people on this forum think... how they insist that copper will replace oil in the so very near future. I'm sure copper will be king some day but it won't be in my lifetime.
There seems to be a fair amount of ignorance when it comes to oil and the demand side of the equation. Those who purport that copper is going to take over from oil in the next 5 - 10 years, in my opinion, need to rethink this scenario.
Right now, the demand for oil is pretty well back to pre-covid levels, about 100M+ barrels per day... and yes, I realize there are recession concerns ahead. For those not in the know, this is how that oil is utilized on a daily basis... 60% for transportation and 40% for other things. Regarding transportation, roughly 1/2 are cars and I read on this forum posters who talk about EVs, Tesla, etc. My question is... How many years of EV sales will it take to replace the ICEs? Let's do the math! There are 1.3B internal combustion engines to replace... EV sales, last year globally, were ~5M and while I realize this will grow quickly, how many years will it take for that 5M-EVs to scale up and replace 1.3B-ICEs... we're most likely looking at the late 2030s or early 2040s. And that's only one use for oil.
This doesn't include the heavy hauling trucks, jets, boats, planes, motorcycles, etc.. which use diesel and other types of fuel. There are ~8M barrels of oil per day consumed by Amazon, the military, business and leisure travel... that's a massive challenge! And, that ignores the fact that for every person in North America alone, to drive an EV, you have to double the power generation capabilities in NA... not to mention world wide... WOW... that's going to be one gigantic mission.
And then there's the other 40%... petrochemicals, lubricants, agriculture, etc. --- all those things grow as the global population grows and as living standards rise. You and I each consume about 20 barrels of oil per year... the global average is 5... so the higher your living standards, the more oil intensive it becomes. The global population is expected to grow by 32% between now and 2050, which is the date we are expected to reach net zero. The living standard where that population growth is ocurring is increasing at the same time, so that means that we would have to tell those people who consume 5, while we consume 20, that they need to consume less... good luck with that.
So when you take a step back, tune out the noise and look at this as our energy reality, nobody can look at that and tell me that demand for oil is not going to grow for the foreseeable future.
My humble suggestion... own IVN but you definately should have oil stocks in your portfolio as well.