RE:RE:About 15 days until Q1/22 Release
Yes the FFO number I gave is before the compensation charge.
I have no idea what the compensation charge will be. As I mentioned, I'm bracing myself for $40 million, and hoping to be surprised with something smaller. Extrapolating seems to result in a number in the $40 million range.
So that means FFO (BEFORE the unknown compensation charge) of about $125 million (thats about $1.54 ish per share
After - the compensation charge, the FFO could be? If $40 million is right, then its about $85 million, or about $1.06 per share.
For all I know, it might be more than $40 million - its that unclear. I'm also assuming they account for it quarterly - which is what they did in Q3 of last year when this first appeared.
Its a non cash charge (for all but those who cashed in some of their performance shares - there are a few insider trades of these sort, but not many).
This is why I wonder if the cash flow per share may be more attractive than the FFO per share this quarter. Probably a bit of a pipe dream, given how much they spent in Q1 on capex ($100 million ish - or if not that high, some siimilar big number), and the money they spent on their new sections. It will depend on the timing of these payments.
Unclear how the market will take this information.
We are likely to get positive news about H2 increased cap ex, along with a big compensation charge (based on the share price run up).
Even at $1.06 FFO, that annualized is $4.24. 3X is $12.72. 2x is $10.60 (about where we are today).
Its pretty hard to imagine OBE's share price spending Q2 at 2x annualized Q1 FFO (after including the one time compensation charge).
If the share price were to stay in a $10.60 holding pattern through Q2, then the Q2 FFO result will be a big positive surprize (because if would not include the compensation charge, and would include higher production, and probably higher selling prices). Last year Q2/21 was released on July 29.
So what does that mean about about buying right now at about $10.50 ish?
While you can always get day traders and over margined types panicking on any given day, and the share price duck diving down and back up, 2X annualized Q1 number (when it includes a one time massive compensation charge), seems like a pretty solid base from which to build on.
2x Q1 annualized FFO (excluding the one time compensation charge), suggests a price of about $12.34
I'm using 2X as a minimum multiple. As OBE's future prospects become more appreciated, this multiple should increase to a much bigger number - 4, 6, 8 or 10X for example (depending on how good the market percieves those future prospects to be).