RE:RE:The $3000 + gold thesis....more MOZ please! Here's a BOA opinion. It is inevitable that the biggest speculative bubble of all time "breaks"...It's not if but when. So how does it play out? They drive rates up to contain inflation by causing a recession or worse...they then go full Japanese and institute yield control and more endless QE.....gold will go through the roof. The $ is losing its staus on the global stage. WW3 isn't out of the question. All the stars are alligned. We may see MOZ sell off further as the whole market comes unglued but for me that's an opportunity. I don't think it takes but a few months for this episode of the FED experiment to fail and then I'll double my gold miner positions, buy TGB a copper play and LTHM a lithium play that I hope to buy 50% lower than they are now. Have to have a thesis...there's no "hope" in mine only probabilities, risk management, patience, and the right to change my mind if it doesn't play out the way I think it must....
- Trading bear markets: bear sentiment, waning war fear (see Russian ruble), inflation “peak”, set-up for bear rally not bad; but central banks the oncoming freight train, and will tighten until credit and/or consumer break; technicals to confirm SPX floor of 4200 tested before SPX ceiling of 4800…
- MOVE (Treasury volatility) index >150 & DXY >105 means “credit event” imminent, while copper breaking down, oil <$95/b & semiconductors (SOX) closing below 200-week moving average (2996) would imply growth taking turn for the worst, and incite rotation from last cyclical holdouts (resources) to defensives of utilities, staples, healthcare, low volatility, high quality, cash;
- note inability of the new FAANGs…US value (SPYV), resource rich indices (UK, Canada, Australia) to confirm new highs this week.