a very relevant post on IV (imo) Re: The Energy Shortage is About to Get Bad . . .(Open Insights Article)
It's much as I alluded to a couple of weeks ago. It looks like it is now finally coming home to roost. Most of Russia's western oil production is in the tundra - under permafrost. They have been able to keep the wells producing up until now, however, reduced shipments to Europe as well as out of the Black Sea has resulted in their storage now being full. There is no place left to put the western production; consequently, the wells are being shut in - in increasing numbers.
When the Siberian wells get shuttered, they freeze up - with significant permanent damage being the result. Tubing and casings freeze in the permafrost layer as soon as oil stops flowing in the wells. That damage is not easily repaired.
If production is down 10% so far, you can be assured that it won't be coming back anytime soon. As exports continue to be constrained, more and more wells will have to be shut in - with more permanent loss of production.
I still am of the view that we will see a loss of a minimum of 2 mmbbls/d production in western Russia. that cannot be fixed. Eastern production will decrease as well over time - since the western service companies and operators are no longer there to keep things humming.
I can't tell you what happens to the oil price next week with the widening China Covid shutdowns happening right now, but you can forget betting on a short/intermediate term increase in ww oil production being there to save the day.