RE:RE:RE:RE:OBE March Estimate Hard to say what the free cash flow will be. Lots of noise in the numbers still. We all see gross production numbers from the April 12 update but so much depends on some details and timing. They drilled 10 wells but only 6 were on production. Were all of them completed? There were a lot of wells drilled in Q4 - how many completed in Q1? Looking forward to seeing the hard numbers
I really like the big picture stuff - suspect the numbers are a little bit better than you think. The prop production increases have to be stupidly profitable at 80+ wti. I also respect that they never lost their minds with hedges. ARC, BTE and CPG are taking huge hits from hedging losses.
The ARO numbers still freak me out a bit and I would like them to cut back on growth via the drill bit once the prop facilities are running flat out. I respect YGR's approach to commit to keeping a rig working all year and cutting spending a little by drilling JV projects. Maybe we could do something similar and maintain one rig in Pembina/cardium, one for bluesky. Occasional for clearwater and viking? And sell the viking properties. Who needs that drilling treadmill?
i would also like some sort of commitment to abandon 5-7 times as many wells as they drill per year until ARO obligations are in better shape.
I agree with you that the biggest de- leveraging quarter should be Q2 hopefully we have a decent head start though.