RE:$1.00 plus ? Lololololol@lockdown. I disagree. This has a big potential oof shooting up to $1.00 upon FDA EUA, as that really only brings THRM valuation of $312M.
We all know that Abbott, Quidel and Diasorin's revenues has been driven much by Covid 19 Test Market...even this past quarter, with their reports in April 2022...And their PE Ratio's reflect this growth from COvid-19 tests... I think THRM can match Quidel's PE Ratio (outlined below)
Q1,2022 Fiscal Results has the following 3 Companies - Abbott, Quidel & Diasorin. (note: Q4/21 for Diasorin) - Abbott: $3.3B of $11B in revenue was from Covid 19 tests. (27%)
- Quidel: $795M of expected $1B in revenue was from Covid 19 tests. (80%)
- Diasorin: $195M Euros of $1.237B Euros was from Covid19 Tests (15%)
In just 1 quarter these 3 companies sold a combined total of $4B in Covid-19 Rapid Antigen Tests. That's just 1 quarter! I personally think if THRM can sell an average of 2.0M+ units per month at $5 USD per test, with $2.50-$3 USD profit margin ($6.0M USD profit a month or $72.0M USD per year on 2M tests per month), then they can achieve a PE Ratio of 6.0 (like Quidel with 80% of its revenue from Covid19 tests). That would easily make THRM's valuation at $432M USD (or $550M CAD with a $0.785 exchange rate). Again, 312M shares, warrants and options outstanding... Plus an estimate of 72M are warrants & options at $0.375-0.55 each (blended $0.46). That adds another $33M CAD to THRMs bank for ramping up in production. This math speaks to me that upon a minimal amount of sales (ie $2M/month), this can get over $1 CAD...
However, on FDA EUA, I think it gets to $1..and then monthly sales will send it higher.
And if you think about this ... 2M POC Tests sold per month is not a whole lot when looking at a 7B global population, 330M+ in US alone...and the only FDA EUA Covid-19 rapid antigen SALIVA test on the market. Feels like it would be an easy number to reach.... In fact, just with Unified LA and NYC School Districts could eat that much a month.... left leaning states with Deomcrat leaders who more than likely with follow Biden Admin's recommendation on Test-To-Treat...than an Florida and Texas right leaning state. (Note: The four largest states in population in the USA -- 2 left leaning, 2 right leaning.)
Source & Data...from my earlier posts Abbott First Quarter 2022 Earnings (April 20, 2022)
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/abbott-reports-first-quarter-2022-results-301528820.html
- First-quarter sales of $11.9 billion increased 13.8 percent on a reported basis and 17.5 percent on an organic
- Global COVID-19 testing-related sales were $3.3 billion in the first quarter.
- % Covid Sales to Total Sales: 3.3B / 11.9B = 27.7%
- Abbott Laboratories PE Ratio: 29.87 for April 14, 2022
Quidel First Quarter 2022 Earnings (April 7, 2022)
Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3821843-quidel-sees-first-quarter-revenue-to-reach-up-to-1b-prelim
- Quidel (NASDAQ:QDEL) stated Thursday that it expects its Q1 2022 revenue to range between $990M-$1B, reflecting growth of 164%-166% Y/Y.
- The preliminary estimate accounts for COVID-19 product revenue of ~$836M that includes ~$657M in QuickVue COVID-19 test revenue and ~$138M in Sofia SARS antigen test revenue. (Rapid Test Revenues: $795M
- % Covid-19 Test to Total Sales. $795M / $1B = 79.5%
- Quidel PE ratio as of April 15, 2022 is 6.41. (Mainly because their business is 80% Covid-19 Rapid Tests)
Diasorin FY 2021 Earning. ( March 16, 2022)
Source: https://diasoringroup.com/en/investors/financial-corner/press-releases/diasorin-business-momentum-and-luminex-acquisition-drive-0
- DIASORIN BUSINESS MOMENTUM AND THE LUMINEX ACQUISITION DRIVE UP REVENUES, NET RESULT AND CASH FLOW GENERATION IN 2021
- REVENUES: 1,237.7 million, +40.4% (+41.2% at CER) compared to 2020
- Luminex contributed 195.0 million to Group revenues: worth mentioning is the strong performance of molecular business on the Covid-19 Aries®
- % Covid-19 Test to Total Revenue: 195M Euros / 1237.7M Euros = 15.75%
- Diasorin PE Ratio: April 2022: 24.84