Q1 Earnings Report Production numbers should be decent and the downstream contribution will definitely help with higher than forecasted refining margins. The results will be tempered by a hefty hedging expense to clear the ceiling moving foward. The real story will be guidance and some clear indication regarding shareholder returns. I suspect management will have a hard time containing their giddiness regarding any discussions relating to Q2.
Positive guideance will be buttressed by Q2 higer oil prices, ridiculously higher refining margins with 3-2-1 crack spreads approaching $55 ($37 higher than previously forecasted), as well as reduced hedging losses. If they couple optimistic guidance with meaningful shareholder returns such as 10% buybacks and 5% dividends (base + special) then I would expect CVE to be trading > $24 CAD within a week.