RE:RE:RE:JD, Red, Td et al...great graphBayStreetWolfTO wrote: Hi JD, as of 4/29 552 oil rigs.
Yes now you see the challenge
Try to plot to the dotted blue line what price of oil historically matches 552 oil rigs.
You got it...the line history repeats itself while mostly true not so much this time when so many rigs were sold for scrap in the downturn. Now you also have a historic supply chain crisis which has never been seen in my lifetime.
It's a new world. Really while it's funny to watch the flippers and short term guys...really it doesn't matter they are all going up in my opinion.
jdmecomber wrote: So not even half currently, I found 793 in North American on 04/29
I found this a while ago. Now with the price of oil near $100 historically that would mean about 1,500+ rigs running
If people are looking for the disconnect this graph paints the picture.
Very clear.
you look at these types of graphs and they support that drill baby drill has been the historical response to high prices. Today, you've got the Biden thinking that drill baby drill will be the typical response but it isn't and it won't be. First off the industry has been starved of capital due to wokeism, then you've got the labour shortage, then you've got the sidelined drill rig shortage resulting from the last crisis and we've got supply chain issues. When these US oil execs say we're not increasing our capex, they should say we can't increase our capex. Americans are going to be lucky to keep production flat
Then the Nuttall line "fear of peak demand has led to peak supply" comes in to play. There's no spare capacity. OPEC can't hit it's own targets. One of the few countries that could permanently increase output is Canada but we've got a handcuffed ability to export