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Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s):  OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.


TSX:OBE - Post by User

Comment by JohnJBondon May 06, 2022 11:58am
79 Views
Post# 34662395

RE:Strange Activity

RE:Strange ActivitySGY has less than 2/3 of the production of OBE, and less cash flow, and non of the heavy oil growth potential, and almost none of the increased gas price potential.    All divided by more shares.    Translation, SGY is worth less than OBE.

If OBE drops, intelligent investors would sell SGY to buy OBE.  Nothing strange about that.

OBE's drop is more unusual, but may be explained by some of the following.

BMO (worst analysts in the business in my view), remaintained their "underperform" rating on OBE (translation Sell), with a target price of $9.50.    Recently increased from $3 something!    Their "logic" is because they claim OBE has "lower growth outlook than average".    They didn't look very closely if they beleive OBE's growth is lower than average.   Given that their prior target was $3 something, its hard to know if they are just slow, or if they have an agenda.

If that isn't strange enough, then we have TD (who do not follow OBE), however their software does state an average of 12 month analyst forecasts.    TD has an error in its software.    TD's software states that only one analyst follows OBE, and that anayst's 12 month forecast is $0.01!   TD then uses that error to give a 12 month forecast of negative 99.88%!     

TD has had that error for several months.    One wonders where it originates, and what it feeds into.   (FYI, that is what I call strange).   If that software is being used for any algorithum that incorporates average anayst forecasts, then any such algorithum is going to be firing in the wrong direction!

If you want to know what the actual analyst forecasts are, you can find them in my prior posts.

If anyone cares, I'm fully invested in OBE, but on a day like today, I couldn't help but add.   I suspect others are doing the same - some may be selling SGY to do so.
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