RE:The Q1 numbers speak for themselvesBBDB859 wrote: Read any report. they all say the same thing. I prefer the TD Reposrt better.
This a repeat of my previous post, But here it is if you want to read it separately.
I have finally seen the Q1/22 financial Webcast. It turns out the Bomber changed it's Firewall for the Call for the first time in 2022. My Anti-Virus was been denied Access. I still have the Investors call to go through though.
The TD report says it well. They are conservative with their perdictions on the SP, and the EBITDA outlook for 2022 where as Desjadins is on the High end.
Interesting that Desjardins, is saying that EBITDA for 2022 is going to be $1.1B range where as TD is $925M range.
I had posted almost 6 months ago about the Expected EBITDA I saw coming, in both 2022 and 2023. I had predicted that 2022 we'd be at $1.1B to $1.2 EBITDA. I'm on the high end of course, as well. But I think that Desjardins is using my method of calculation for EBITDA.
The way i reasoned it was, by the Annual increases from Quarter to Quarter in 2021, and, I used the overall Bomber Guidence figures for future years, to come to that conclusion. I figured that Management used certain yearly percentage multiples to get to $1.5B EBITDA for 2025. But I realized quickly that they weren't just going to go from $600M in 2021 right to $1.5B. So my guess on each year on EBITDA from 2022 right to 2025 were very close. I figured that Managements numbers weren't that far off, given that they know their own Backlog well, & the Capex well. Overall I still feel that the 2022 EBITDA, without doing the Numbers again, will be in th Range $1.1B + or -.
But our +FCF will remain around $150M if we're lucky.
Why?
Simple. The management has told us, that they have a high CAPEX for all the expansion that's been made in 2022/3. 2022 will be high in both Production Expansion, and Service Center Expansion. We got what we got in +FCF from Q1/2021 already is IMO. From now on, every Quarter of +FCF and a good portion of Quarterly EBITDA will go to the heavy CAPEX for 2022/23. Here are some facts. To pay for a building Expansion of just 100K sq.ft., it costs roughly $30M here in Canada. But other countries costs, that the Bomber is building Service Centers in, have high costs as well. Singapore's expansion is 4 X the current size. Beacon Hill in the UK, is in the $35 range (I'm guessing here) but the UK inflation is probably worse than Canada's. The Florida/ Whitchita ones are probably in the $30M each, so is Australia's, and Germany's.
Overall we probably have a bill in the range of close to $200M in PP&G for the Service Centers. Btw that $200M for Service Centers has to be paid this year, as we've been told, that they will be completed this year. Then of course is the Elephant Pearson for $450M paid in portions, the heaviest of which will probably be this year. Of course there is the CL3500 facility improvements as well. What we are forgetting is, the Parts and Equipment cost to load up these Facilities for production, and Service's they provide.
So I see $550M of Capex there, alone in 2022. Plus $250M in interest costs & some of the $400M to pay down of LTD carry over, and there is your $900M from EBITDA gone. But we'll still have another $150M in +FCF left over for 2022. So $1.1B of EBITDA
So FCF & +FCF for the next 3 Quarters is going to be what we got in Q1/22. Not bad, I can live with Plus/Minus $165M +FCF range for 2022. But 2023 is still going to have a little of the $450M left Pearson. But that bulk will be paid, and or saved, from from 2022 FCF. I believe 2023 will be a banner year of $1.3B to $1.4B in FCF. Of which we'll have some $800M to play with. I presume the whole thing will go on the LTD.
I did notice in the Earnings call that Bart, was scrambling to tell Analysts where the money from the future FCF's of Q2/3/4 of 2022 was going, given the good profits in the traditional slow Q1's. But Q1/22 was great, so you'd assume that Q2/3/4 of 2022, with higher deliveries and better Margins, would give the Bomber higher FCF & +FCF's every Quarter going forward. But Bart and EM to some extent are not elaborating on the Cash Usuage related to these IMPORVEMENTS that the Bomber has taken on, to be completed by 2022/23. That's just CAPEX. I'm starting to see a trend by management saying to Analysts as LITTLE AS POSSIBLE. Which is good, because these Analysts don't do their math, and some keep asking stupid queastions & the company isn't going to keep giving the same information over & over. As the old saying goes, sometimes you have enough with stupidity. Great start to 2022. JMHO here, do your own DD. Cheers
Grandpa 859, that was beautiful all that writing. But reality in this present market, says that you are completely lost, naive and have no idea how the markets works. Did Grandma gave you your medications??? You Bsht all the time on this board and when you massage others in private. You think we didn't see your little game?? You want me and others that you said you put on ignore to beleave you don't read our posts?? Really??? You think experience investors do not know what you are doing? We know by far, more then you think.