RE:100% to debt with no buy backsWildfury wrote:
Baytex should change their strategy, forget about share buy backs until debt is down to $500,000,000. They honestly can't buy 56 million shares in 2022 so why make everyone think they can, it's just blowing smoke, means nothing. Why throw good FCF towards buy backs, what's the purpose? To increase share price so that the day traders reap the rewards of the longs, I say no. The faster they pay down the debt the more cash will available for share buy backs or dividends. Who cares that they have 564,000,000 million shares, ARX, CNQ, possibly SU have much more. The main reason for this stock not trading at fair value is, #1, debt, although in much better shape then 24 months ago of over 2.5 billion. #2 reason, no dividend, that's it. Share buy backs is just an illusion, making one feel that the company feels that their shares are undervalued which they are. What really shows me that the management has full confidence with future earnings & outlook is showing us some proof like insiders are buying shares. Baytex management owns less than 1% of the float, to me that sounds off alarms. Im not a fan of management, I've said this before, reason being that it was Ed & company that almost bankrupt BTE, overpaid for acquisitions & created 3 billion in debt. The reason why Baytex is still around is not because they are genius, it's because of the energy prices rebound, not because Ed & company saved it. This stock should go up, no doubt as long as energy prices stay in the ballpark. Look at the clowns running ARX, huge losses, with Crew energy, another loss, WTF. I'm not saying that Ed & Co are totally incompetent, they're doing some great things but I'm not giving him all the credit for the turnaround, I'm sorry, those credits go to Joe B, Russia, climate activists.
where did you get the impression they intend to buy back 56 million shares in 2022? I agree with you that it would be very difficult to achieve but it seems you've built up a hypothesis on how the company should move forward based on a misunderstanding of how they are moving forward.
out of curiosity, what do you feel fair value is?