RE:Corporate finance manual policy 5.6 NCIB Red2K and BSW,
Sorry I could not help today. My time is being well spent, and productive, with other things that must be done. That being said, I shoveled snow today, in addition to my work. The bad weather allowed some time to post.
A day where were Baytex is down 8.5% on average volume. I would not call that a sell off. I would explain it as wait and see, or just indecision. When people sell and move money, it is usually three days before funds clear. I think tech sellers will come to Baytex from institutions, and private interests.
Regarding the 2% (Any Month) and 10% Total (for year defined in the NCIB) is how I interpreted it, from both the PR, and the document from 2006, that I found about a month ago. They had two rules to choose from, and this is the one they chose. Regarding the details, they were clear, and specific. It is a good plan. We know they watch oil markets and Baytex share price, as well as anyone, plus they have the best information. We will get more than we think from buybacks with this company. Sadly, I don’t believe we will ever get updated outside of earnings releases.
I expect that oil could trend down going onto expiration at the end of next week. Oil price suppression is in the best interest of the banks and politicians, for debt servicing and elections coming in the fall. This is the time when we get a sense of how much paper they can throw at oil, before it blows up and burns them. The supply demand numbers, covered extensively here and other places, indicate a move higher in oil is coming. The upper and lower limit of crude oil is still being defined. That move to $130US was a rapid move, another rapid move down, and then it settled after expiration week in the middle. I still think that same range is where oil will be range bound for the remainder of this year. If massive amounts of paper are used to suppress oil, and it blows up in their face, I think the $180/barrel calls might happen, and not remain there very long. It has always been that way. $147/Barrel in 2008? Wasn’t that long ago. It was 2010-2014 that was really the better time for oil.
It is so nice to be content with lower or higher Baytex share prices. The Baytex board has our back. They dare anyone to move the price down, so the shares can be disposed of, as they are bought back!
Let them bash. I can see by their posts, they really know nothing, that is worth anything. The bashers are just an echo, repeating what they have heard. They never post anything useful.
RS