RE:RE:RE:RE:Q2 and onwardsSo what that says to me is that on average traffic is 75%ish of 2019. I believe that is the load factor that was estimated for next quarter to be reported by AC.
With the discussion around "RE:Cost per seat mile - profitable seat sale" , anything over 40% should be profitable on the example cited.
However, there are all kinds of costs to be reconciled under the umbrella of costs. These erode the operational profits. Here are a few of them. Most of them fall under restart costs and a lot fall under fleet renewal. Here a few that should be quite obvious.
Rouge 10 noted that 2 more aircraft have just been delivered. No matter which aircraft type they were (737 or 223), there are delivery costs and finance payments to be made whether they are leased, bought and financed or part of the long term deal with Boeing. There was a refitted 767 freighter delivered recently as well. I am sure there was a delivery payment on that work.
On the good side of things, AC (or in a round about deal Boeing was paying) has been paying for the last of the group of 400 737MAX pilots to be sitting doing no flying since the 737 delivery shut down. All of these pilots or close to it should now be back at revenue producing work.
Cargo and Aeroplan keep evolving.
Fuel prices rose. As per forecast by MR, so did prices and so will prices.
Hiring and training cabin crews, ground handling crews and passenger service crews costs time and takes money. AC seems to not be as knee jerk as the US carriers who are doing all kinds of crazy things as they went full throttle to rise to demand and are adapting with some innovative ideas. AC seems to be taking a slower and somewhat smoother path.
The latest choke point is airport security. That is not under ACs control but it is just another thing to adapt to.
I mentioned before that Business Class demand will be back. Top bosses of top corporations are having their conferences now to start the process of getting business in line with current ideas on how business is to be done. Once the course is set, executives will be out there traveling around in Business Class to get out there and execute those plans.
All the projections I see from Airlineinvestor target a process that grows gradually to 2025 and 2026. It will not happen in 3 months.
In the mean time the shorts are making small change (if you let them) while they wait for the plan to evolve and the profits to show up on the Quarterly reports.