RE:$6.69Good post and analysis. One minor but important correction: the share capital at end of quarter is not 59,357,000 since that is, as the financials say, the WEIGHTED AVERAGE number of shares outstanding during the quarter. The actual figure at end of quarter is lower.
They started 2022 with 60,787,000 shares outstanding
Per today’s press release, in Q1 they repurchased 5,026,305 shares,
bringing the outstanding shares at end of Q1 down to 55,760,695. Then in April they repurchased another 1,015,396 shares.
That makes a total of 6,041,701 shares repurchased between Jan 1, 2022 and mid April 2022.
As a result,
as of (approx.) mid April they have roughly 54,745,299 shares outstanding. SleepingGiant64 wrote:
It didn't quite get to $6.69. The consensus actually moved to $7.04 in the run up to the release so I guess that's disappointing insomuch as a company trading at 5x this quarter's earnings can be.
I'm trying to figure out why they missed because revenues at $1349 beat the $1281 consensus.
Production was 921m and sales 860m avg selling price C$1410. Inventory build? Up to a whopping $511,993,000 from $250,481,000 at the start of the year.
EACOM adjustments might have eaten it up too. They ended up paying $731.2m including inventories so it only contributed $5.1m in EBITDA.
Price at $1410 is interesting. Assuming USD$1020 now, that works out to $1315 so we're not so far off that for this quarter, though it was $100 lower in April. We'll probably see a step down after the May contract rolls off but that remains to be seen. In any case, they should be able to easily beat the $3.85 consensus in Q2.
Net debt at $340m. They generated $378.9m in FCF this quarter so could in theory pay it off this quarter but spending $32.9m on the April buyback and $55.6m on GFP kills that.
Share count at 59,357 at quarter end then take away another 1.015m afterwards. Call it 58,350,000, down from 70m in 2018 (-16.6%)
Not much in the way of guidance.
Lots of questions for the call tomorrow.