RE:RE:Baytex debt tracking 2022...based on $94 oil $5.60 gasWild, I will be honest that chart is good for all Cdn O&G companies. While I post on the BTE board it will help all our holdings.
I agree that if you exlcuded the hedges we would certainly be making a lot more than the current rate which at $114 WTI and NG $8.2 is $1.069 billion per year in free cash flow...could you imagine without hedges!
Well we wait for 2023...on a side note once the debt is below the $800M you say go fly a kite to the debt holders who forced those hedges on MANY O&G companies (some of which we lost during covid) for those that made it BTE included we learn that the banks are evil and don't have shareholders interests at heart. We also learned O&G should stop subsidizing consumer spending.
So we need to tell the banks to go you know what.
You know me I don't look at day to day week to week...BUT I do look at the 6/12 month charts. While BTE is still above BIR, CJ and MEG on the 12 month.... a couple of which I hold...they have done better in the last 6 months so you are correct.
Of course as you know every company hits targets at different times this is why I am a big fan of diversification.
BTE pushed the buybacks to RBC using an ASPP and I don't think the price is being purposely supressed. In fact on the 1 month chart (again I rarely look at this view) BTE is 11 out of 22 on the TSX Energy Cap Index....so if I take a step back that middle point seems to contra the theory of planned suppression doesn't it? Up 4+% on the 1 month.
I think management can't be too agressive until Q2 release walking into Q3...by that time July 28th we will be in September 2022 WTI contracts and I feel they will know exactly the road map to hit <$800m debt..
I would be surprised if they don't detail the next step during that meeting July 28th (in my opinion only)
I think when you see the plan I think the market will react....just look at 2023 unhedged at $95
For now buyback shares (that will help the yield come dividend time)
From now to July 28th you are talking what 71 days?
I am very much looking forward to Q2 results....
Side note (I also hold TVE) if you recall before Christmas TVE announced a divy plan....people screamed why BTE didn't do the same and that TVE was going to outperform. Well fast forward to today that annoucnement by TVE did ZERO for the price today....i believe they are even down on the 3 month chart...and lag on the 6 month...
The issue is there are so many macro events that news was lost in the shuffle....
Wildfury wrote:
BSW, this is a great chart and positive for Baytex, regardless of WTI trading above $110 US, Baytex is not benifiting from these high prices because of their 41% of production being hedged resulting in multi million dollar losses. My question is, when do these large amount of hedges end. Its no secret that Baytex is involved with a NCIB buy back, this is another reason why this stock is being held down. BTE management wants to pay the least for their shares and for the foreseeable future. As a shareholder it's tough to see names like Cardinal, Birchcliff, MEG and others climbing much faster then BTE. I'm optimistic that sooner or later this stock will run but we need management to be more aggressive with news releases to promote their business with some positive updates. With current market conditions and production, Baytex should be minimum in the 7.50-$8.50 dollar range today. When do we see some pop in the SP, 3-6 months?