RE:RE:RE:PollRU is selling their oil to markets with 7B pop at $75 bbl shipped. OPEC ME price is $85 or so. 7.5B pop markets are averaging $90bbl landed max. 1B pop markets supporting UA Nazis are paying $120 bbl landed. Nigerian is selling for $118 bbl. NATO and UA already capitulating to RU with: 1. Yesterday's Nazi branded troops surrender, 2. Mass destruction of western weapons shipments as soon as they cross into UA 3. Self circumenvention of own energy payment sanctions to RU and it's summer LOL. 4. Turkey blocking two new NATO members for hosting terrorists last 30 years 5. EU refusing Qatar's gas terms of oil price peg and 20 year fixed term, 6. OPEC and everyone else's refusal to pump more oil for Nazi supporters. Overall the anti RU measures are a failure already, and hugely embarrassing. The west can expect to pay 30-40% more for oil and gas forever now so AOI would be safe forward selling 100% at $90-100 bbl. Sooner the better because clearly oil is in bubble territory.
Lonegaurdian19 wrote: Two years ago I used to argue $60 was the equilibrium for oil producers and consumers. Today I'd say it's more like $80-90. This is the new level where input costs and profit margin negate demand destruction.
I would have no issue with them forward selling the rest of their cargos this year at $100. This would give clarity on debt mgmt and the possibility of returns to shareholders. Their dividend is interesting, it is quite conservative so it didn't really do much. While I appreciate something vs nothing they may need to up it significantly to see price appreciation. Paying semi-annually is also odd. I would hope if they can offload Kenya or monetize Impact they'll pay a special dividend or spread it out in an ordinary dividend paid quarterly.
This environment is a sellers market
2cents