RE:I kind of look at it this way... No matter the precise time scale, NVA will just keep drilling and buying back shares until the share price attains a level where returns are at a normal level for this type of business, Once debt is essentially paid down and after production finally levels out at a much higher rate, we will be getting our refurns as mostly dividends. Those dividends on an annual basis could well be close to today's share price ( cash flow = 110 kbpd x $60 x 365/ 182million shares = $13.25 /share )
Fcf for dividends = $ 10 per share
Share price = ??
I am assuming that in less than 3 years we will have made 2 10% buybacks and that NVA will be at full capacity. Also that netbacks will hold up and will not be held back with hedging losses !!
Perhaps some one will want to make a run at NVA before that, but I think neither management nor Nuttall are interested unless share prices are much higher. I suspect that Nuttall realizes tha NVA deserves a higher valuation due to their growth characreristics. I do not know POU's intentions , but they look like bargain hunters. The current share price might look like a bargain, but I feel other institutional holders will also value it much higher !!