Almonty Industries Inc T.AII

RE:Share Price Based on Future Free Cash Flow - Thoughts?

[QuarterDollar]

Hi Bluesky,

My comments......

• A risk rate of 10% is too high because that rate is for high risk projects.  This is a low risk project 3m Libor plus 2% which was 3.5% . I think you should use a risk rating of 5%-6%.
• Annual profits will be around $60M-$70M per year, with the virtical integration excluding Moly.
• $70M return on 210M shares is $0.33 per share
• If the rate of return is 5% giving you $0.33 per share, then the share price should be around $6.67. ( I haven't done the Value Investing method to calculate the intrinsic value of the company because I am too busy).  But Tier 1 companies tend to pay around 3% rate of return so Almonty's stock price should be over $9 a share when it is established.
• LB said Tier 1 companies have a $1B+ valuation and Almonty currently has $200M, which means it is just a matter of time Almonty will have a minimum share price of $5.
• When Almonty become established as a Tier 1 company and does business with other Tier 1 companies.  Then and only then will the market realize that Almonty is here to stay and by association with other Tier 1 companies, must be itself a really good company. It is at this time the market will really invest. Remember the most investors don't know anything about the tungsten market. Almonty will be the first to introduce the tungsten market to the investment community.

• Everyone keeps bringing up the KFW loan..... the loan is a done deal.....done like dinner!  Almonty's problem was shipping of the mining equipment (2 months delay). Plus, there is no point in drawing down on the loan sooner than you need to, if you have money in the bank.  Why incur interest charges when you don't need to.  Most likely the terms of the mining equipment was payment due on recieval of items, net 30, which mean payment due 30 days after receipt of equipment.  (my appologies for being snarky..... Nothing personal Bluesky.......keep posting your analyses).

• If you take note of LB's presentation at the IIF, his tone has changed. He is not focused on convincing new shareholders anymore. He is now focused on delivery and growth.  It is just a matter of time everything will fall into place.