RE:RE:RE:May 31To elaborate.......
The general market will continue its downward trajectory until inflation can get under control. Throw in the pending recession and we are looking at a 1970's style bear market. Why is there any reason to bid stocks up in this environment? Sad but true, the baby always gets thrown out with the bathwater, how else can you expain the precious metals juniors trading at 52 week lows and heading lower?
Now, we all know at some point in the Summer there is a good chance that RIO will start to purchase shares in the open market. But, there are no guarantees that will happen. And it is entirely possible that any of the majors who will ultimately bid on Casino don't really care about the share price or how many shares they currently own. Why you may ask? Well, I have a hunch that when we get down to brass tacks that the BoD will negotiate a price tag for Casino which is independent of the number of shares outstanding. Did you see anywhere in the PEA that estimates a per share metric? No, the number of shares outstanding are independent of the NPV of the project.
The majors, flush with cash or elevated share prices, very well may not worry about trying to scoop up an extra 10 million shares to save an extra $100mm off the ultimate price tag of an acquisition. Yes, to most of us, $100mm is a huge figure, but merely an afterthought for the multi-billion behemoth majors.
So, retail is shying away because the markets are rolling over, the hot money is leaving because there is no guarantees if or when the majors will start buying WRN shares on the open market and the rest of us are all just throwing around speculation about what will happen next. Where does that leave us? Well, there are still investors such as myself who are willing to wait for the price to come down another 15 - 20% and will be happy to buy more shares and have the patience to wait until Casino is ultimately acquired by a suitor.
Where things get a little choppy with Casino is how the generalist looks at it. If the focus is copper and we are in a recession it will be a horrible time to iron out an acquisition. But, in our favour is the gold and gold is what does the best in a 1970s style market. I have a sneaking suspicion before Casino is acquired Paul will be hyping the gold and the copper will be just along for the ride, which is completely opposite of how he touts Casino currently.