No body knows what will constitute a "triggering event" that will put the US pot market into full launch. Some think decriminalization at the Federal level. Others are saying that SAFE banking legislation will be enough to do it. Personal interest want MORE legislation to be intertwined and every time any of these are presented for sign off the US politicians queer the deal by attaching it to some other special interest bill that the pot issue gets lost in or abandoned in favour of spending bills and such.
My gut feeling is that this issue will be resolved, either with some great Federal legislation that takes jail and seizure of investment and assets out of the equation. This is a chance for US politicians to amaze the voters with a lone bill that encompasses the best of SAFE, MORE and State Law protection, such that non US players feel welcomed to the US marijuana and hemp business.
So Canopy hasn't turned the corner yet to profitability and there is no doubt in my mind that they have heavy reliance on doing business on US soil to break the losing streak.
Some time ago Constellation Brands STZ saw something in Canopy that they coughed up $5 billion C. dollars for a good percentage of Canopy. To me, having a major US investment by some hardcore entrepreneurs like STZ added the most legitimacy to the greenrush and woke investors up.
By Klein's own admission, Canopy hasn't turned the corner to profitability in Canada, who's law and policy makers legalized pot and strangled it at every turn with stupid legislation and over protectiveness.
I can't believe that investors can't grasp what Canopy has done in anticipation of planting their flag on US soil. Canopy is proactively doing deals with US MSOs that will complement their businessplan which definately includes the US. According to Klein, most of the investment deals they have done with US based companies are showing black ink but remain in the shadows as far as promotion. He suggested that Canopy's bottomline will look profitable when they can include those US revenues in their financial reporting.
Most of the deals are to happen when some form of decriminalization happens, hence the "triggering event" or when non US pot companies just say fockit and change the signs on Acreage, Terrascend, GAGE and divulge the branding deals they are doing to get a toehold with US MSOs. Investors aren't talking up the inroads that Canopy and STZ have made with these RTO deals where Canopy announces doing business in the US legal States.
STZ is a blue chip moneymaker who have a $5 billion investment in Canopy but also have co-signed and financed loans for other US MSOs for their future plans of being a world leader. They are committed and I'm betting will throw more money towards this effort to be the leader of the greenrush.
A lot of people don't know about the 300K sq foot facility that Canopy has built out in New York or that products from Canopy's umbrella companies are making their way to shelves in legal States.
Of course STZ is all about beverages and Canopy has worked hard in Canada to get a line of beverage skus out in the Canadian marketplace to test the recipes and retweak flavours in anticipation of activating those branding deals in the US market.
This investor thinks that the cannabinoid beverage skus are going to cannibalize a lot of the smokeable forms of sales, especially when the lobbyists get a level playing field with beverage alcohol. So many good reasons to switch from lite alcohol choices to a cbd or thc beverage for less calories, sugar and no hangover. CBD offerings could be enjoyed in a bar or lounge setting as doing something good for your body while getting some pain killing or relaxation effect.
I have a few cannabinoid infused beverage investments that I expect to become profitable when they crack the US marketplace, including Canopy and Acreage.
I also have Tinley's who I am hoping will be a rto for Canopy or STZ because they are selling Internationally in California and Canada. Some marketmaker is suppressing the price of TNY but they are starting to bang on all cylinders and have beverage sku recipes, IP and a state of the art bottling facility for another revenue stream to complement their award winning beverage line.
Could even get a Redditt/Gamestop event with TNY which I would love to see.
glta and dyodd
ps. open your eyes to the investments that Canopy has made in the US. My sense is that most are unaware or ignoring the acquisition deals that Canopy has done for their US launch.