RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:3 companies thatThanks Pablo. well said.
-Remember the EBITDA will be higher than $1.1B in fiscal 2022. So 2023 you're into $1.3B territory.
-Capex will be non-existant in 2023 because the Service side investments will have ended this year. Including Q1/2023 for Pearson.
-The usable Reserves of $1.4, have no line secured/unsecured LOC. But there is $4-$500M that is used for calleteral, that is not included/counted in the Reserves, right now. Which brings that Reserve figure higher, to $1.8-$1.9.
-Considering the crater we were in. Ya we're now in heaven.
-If you think PE brings us $7 to $8. I haven't done the #'s recently. But I think you're right on the ball. Last time I was shocked how undervalued the stock was.
Honestly I'm still shocked to see this rediculous SP.
PabloLafortune wrote: Very long story. You analyse a lot of "comparable" stocks out there, we aprroached 50x PE at one point. Now its closer to 35, probably on its way to 20. Thing is with Bombardier, what happens to the $1B EBITDA? Well theres probably still some mopping up to do gradually being whittled away (ex lawsuits and disputes) and they are sure investing a lot in services so quite a bit of capex there, taxes not an issue, and of course, interest is big. Interest wise, Bart (Bert?) is whittling away. Like I said before, the other assets and liabilities is kiff kiff now incl. the current well it was a $5B crater pre asset sales so that's squared away. Another balance sheet observation is not including the cash, the receivables, contract assets and inventories is varying from 3.5 to 3.8B whereas the payables and contract liabilities (curent) is around 4B to 4.2 so that is matching up each other as well which. leaves the $1.4B cash plus potentially a secured credit line (which they don't have atm afaik) to apply against the 6.6B LTD. Beyond that, if interest were $50M (ie 1.5B debt), we know tax is $0 (how long not sure), capex $200M, they could CF $750M which x the aforementioned 20x PE is $15B (USD) or C$19B add back the $4B debt I took off, leaves you with C$14B on 2.4B sharees or closer to $5-6. In other words, IMO there is an opportunity to somehow improve the balance sheet at some point (at better valuations than $1.20) while leaving the investor(s) with a nice upside. In other words, it would seem to be better to me as an investor to invest in a company at an 8-10 PE going to 20 rather than invest in a company at a 35 PE going to 20.
By the way, a dividend is not utopia but apparently C series was. Zing.