TD ReportPunched out a few months ago because I didn't like the momentum. But at this point, it just seems too cheap for the long run so I jumped back in a few minutes ago. In addition to TD, latest targets are National Bank ($14.00), BNS ($18.00) and BMO (19.00). GLTA
| |
| |
12-Month Target Price: C$30.00 |
12-Month Dividend (Est.): C$0.00 |
12-Month Total Return: 302.7% |
Anaergia Inc.
(ANRG-T) C$7.45
Second of Seven Italian Facilities Commissioned Event
Anaergia disclosed that it has officially commissioned its Calimera facility in the Italian province of Lecce.
Impact: POSITIVE
Details: The Calimera facility has the annual capacity to digest 24,000 tons of landfill- diverted organic waste and nameplate RNG capacity of 92,000 MMBtu. Based on the IPO disclosures, this facility had a build cost of ~$30.0 million and was expected at the time to generate annualized project-level EBITDA of $5.0 million gross ($3.0 million net as it has a 60% ownership stake in the project), although we note that the IPO disclosures contemplated much lower natural gas prices.
TD View: Based on our conversations with management, we believe that these projects typically have a four-to-six month ramp up from commissioning to nameplate capacity (this is primarily due to biological factors). In light of the feedstock sourcing delays at its flagship Rialto facility that we believe are largely out of the company's control, we highlight the Q1/22 conference call where management noted that “all our Italian projects have fixed contracts for the feedstock so there is no issue on feedstock”. As a result, we expect that a more normalized ramp up in volumes at this facility may ease investor concerns around potential future asset performance and the company's ability to meet its 2023 guidance, including revenue ranging between $490 million and $560 million, as well as an EBITDA range of $85.0 million to $105.0 million. This announcement is consistent with our forecast and, as a result, we will not be making any changes at this time. We continue to believe that Anaergia possesses several high quality attributes, including its broad intellectual-property portfolio, strategic focus on municipal waste through a growth-focused infrastructure model, and the most commercial- ready business model in our Clean Technology coverage universe. As a result, Anaergia remains our top pick in the Clean Technology sector.