RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:$60 mil debt retired for $45 mil cost no extension huh - this is the second time this month that I don't have access to the most up-to-date note. Both with my TD web broker and with my national bank financial. What's going on? Maybe I am a low priority customer… Maybe I need an upgrade.
Ernieandbert wrote: Not what he wrote this morning at 7:45am:
"At current commodity prices, we model EBITDA over the next 12 months of $230 mln and FCF of ~$70 mln - an implied EV/EBITDA of 2.1x and FCF yield of 15%. FCF will be used to support deleveraging and expansion initiatives at Moa."
He can model whatever he wants but the co's own sensitivity analysis shows: $12/lb Ni at $302mm Ebitda for year. I model $303mm at current Ni, Co, and Fertilizer prices (Uhmmm...same as S so I think I am spot on). Add back about $5mm in cash interst expense and you get $140mm of FCF. That would buy back almost half the remaining debt at Par. And shows EV/Ebitda at under 2x for 2022 and under 1x for 2023.
Uhmmmm