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Premier Health of America Inc PRHAF


Primary Symbol: V.PHA

Premier Health of America Inc. is a Canadian healthtech company. The Company provides a comprehensive range of outsourced service solutions for healthcare needs to governments, corporations, and individuals. The Company uses its proprietary LiPHe platform to lead the healthcare services sector in digital transformation to provide patients with more accessible care services. The Company operates through two segments: Per Diem and Travel Nurses. The Per Diem segment includes Premier Soin and Code Bleu, two of its Quebec subsidiaries that offer their respective services for nursing and assistance by profile and by region. The Travel nurse segment includes Canadian Health Care Agency, Premier Soin Nordik, Solutions Nursing as well as Solutions Staffing, four of its subsidiaries that offer their respective services to the federal and provincial governments for nursing and assistance, including in remote regions.


TSXV:PHA - Post by User

Comment by Torontojayon Jun 04, 2022 9:09am
157 Views
Post# 34731525

RE:Updated estimates of FY2022 finances

RE:Updated estimates of FY2022 finances
colourama wrote:
Now that two quarters of FY2022 are in the books, I thought it would be interesting to see (in a simple way since I am not a financial expert), some basic estimates for the year, to get a hold where we are.

Revenue:

So far PHA has $36 million in top line revenue through 2 quarters. Add in 1.75 quarters for the new acquisition, estimated at $24/4 = $6 million per quarter, and assume that the next two quarters give us the same $17 million each for the current business. This gives $36 + 2*$17 + 1.75*$6 = $80 million in top line revenue. So at our current market cap, we are trading at $26.8/$80 = 0.34 times sales.

EBITDA:

So far PHA has $1.95 million in EBITDA. Take the most recent quarter as a bearish conservative estimate and add back the non-recurring expenses:
  • $0.3 million for the implementation of a new ERP system and computer expenses
  • $0.3 million for transaction costs related to their acquisition

I get say conservatively $1 million in EBITDA. The new acquisition adds approximately $3 million EBITDA per year, so $0.75 EBITDA per quarter, say. So a conservative estimate is $1.95 + 2*$1 + 1.75*$0.75 = $5.3 million EBITDA for the full year. At current market cap we are trading at $26.8/$5.3 = 5 times EBITDA.

If they return to their usual $1.5 million in EBITDA per quarter, then the business is seeing 4*$1.5 + $3 = $9 million in EBITDA and we are trading at under 3 times EBITDA.

Of course there are other perhaps better metrics that one should use to value the company and I welcome any corrections. But is the negativity on the company just market sentiment? It feels like everyone is pricing it as if the company is a failure.

Very frustrating, but I'll continue to pick up a few shares and check back in August to see if I am the fool for viewing the company more positively.



Hi Colourama. It's nice to see a financial forecast for the year. 
 

Year to date we get ~ $36m or the equivalent of $18m per quarter.

R~ $36m + $18m*2 + $6m*1.75 =$82.5m 

Or, if we use second quarter as a lower bound for the next 2 quarters we get 

R~ $36m + $17.5*2 + $6m*1.75 = $81.5m

It is not clear if costs related to Erp will continue for the next 2 quarters, then go live on Oct 1, and then stop recurring.

As a lower bound ebitda should exceed $700k and can be as high as $1.3m over the next 2 quarters. This comes from $300k in transaction costs, $300k in Erp costs and $300k from lower revenue contribution from Code Bleu and Premier Soin. I will use $1m as a mean estimate which agrees with your estimation for the next 2 quarters. 


Also, the acquisition adds $3.4 million of recurring ebitda. Or the equivalent of about $0.85m per quarter. 


ebitda ~ $1.95m + $1m*2 + $0.85m*1.75 = $5.4375m 

Enterprise value =~ $26.8m + $5.73m + $14.5m =~ $47.03m

Enterprise value to ebitda for fiscal 2022 is approximately 8.64. 


it is much better to look at enterprise value to ebitda metrics for a full 4 quarters post acquisition. 

ebitda=~ $1m*4 + $3.4m =~ $7.4m 

If we add back $0.3m in ebitda from lower revenue contribution from Premier Soin and Code Bleu then we get 

Ebitda =~ $1.3m*4 + $3.4m =~ $8.6m 

Estimated forward enterprise value to ebitda would range from $47.03/$7.4 =~ 6.35 on the lower end of ebitda and $47.03/$8.6 =~ 5.47 on the higher end of ebitda. 


My guess would be that a fair value is anywhere between 10-14 times Ebitda and possibly even higher given its growth rate. 
 

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