@flashcash: Depending on whether you're ... Depending on whether you're an investor or a speculator, you're either right or wrong.
To better understand, I suggest you consult table 16-19 in the technical report 43-101, published on SEDAR on May 13, 2021 (page 155). This table presents an estimate of the results expected month by month for the first 4 years of operations, taking into account all the mineral resources identified.
You will see for yourself that this table shows a drop in gold grade after the first 18 months of operations. This strategy, which consists of processing the richest minerals as a priority, aims to generate the maximum profit in order to meet financial obligations. As indicated, this strategy also has the consequence that beyond this 18-month period, the gold grade will decline (Stg2a phase).
Still in the same table, you can see the gradual increase in the quantity of waste rock to be moved. From the second phase (Stg1b), this increase is 136% and continues to progress for each of the subsequent phases. Inevitably, this will have significant consequences on production costs.
Regarding the last phase (Stg2c), you can see a gradual increase in the quantity of tons of ore processed. This sharp increase suggests that investments will be necessary to make this operating phase profitable, since the current plant is not designed to process as many ores. Moreover, given the quantity of waste rock to be moved, which is multiplied by 10, I doubt the profitability of this phase.
Finally, the Segilola plant is operating beyond its initial planned capacity. While this is viewed positively by some shareholders, others are concerned about the accelerating depletion of mineral resources. With only 4 years of resources, THOR will have to act quickly to identify new resources. If THOR could identify extensions to the main pit, it might require less effort than identifying new areas. But in both cases, it is expensive and it takes time.
In conclusion, I believe that THOR's analysis should not be limited to the results currently obtained. For a speculator, I anticipate no significant change to justify a sudden increase in SP. For the investor that I am, I consider that the combination of THOR's debt, the predictability of the increase in its operating costs and the regression of its financial results, the faster than expected reduction in its mineral reserves , I consider the bet to be excessively risky. At least, I don't see how THOR could stand out in its industry. This attribute of being among the best is very important to me. Considering the context, I don't see how THOR could fit in there.
In addition, I affirm that comments related to security issues and corruption in Nigeria must be treated with a minimum level of importance. This information, even if proven, is offset by incentives for the country concerned. Including the cost of staff, tax incentives, a rainy season rather than a winter, ... I believe that judgment must be exercised and see if THOR is concerned by these allegations. About analyst coverage, I'm going to keep ignoring it, especially when it's free. Personally, I prefer to work more and spare myself the need to blindly trust analysts. Thus, both your victories and your defeats will be yours. Good luck