It's a matter of time Anyone who knows anything about supply/demand in the oil market understands you have to get through the summer season before you worry about a possible 2023 recession . Demand remains strong as government policy discourages investment keeping a cap on supply . While the market acts like Bambi in hunting season gasoline demand is up 9% and airports are jam packed with travellers on this US long weekend . In 2 weeks both Canada Day and the US July 4th wll be another massive draw on inventory .
Most of the US is experiencing high temps and power demand which should be bullish for Nat gas , regardless of the temporary Freeport shutdown inventory will remain low . I would expect the European situation to pressure an earlier start than Sept for Freeport but we'll see . Every day that goes by is one day closer to winter 22/23 , with low inventory's of all fuels next winter could be very volitile .
Last week Tesla increased their prices by $6000/$8000 and the lack of EV manufacturing capacity is woefully obvious . Electrical rates are as volitile as oil . Not that the electrical grid would even handle an EV society but in that event , what do you think your power bill will be in 5 or 10 years ? It will take decades to build out what some expect in 5 years , it's like burning down your house because you have another under construction .
Everything points to a tight market but the media would rather take about Bitcoin (ponzi scheme) than oil , it's more politics than business . Someone with a microphone says "hey .... IS THAT A FOX ?" and the sheep start running . Right now fear is the new obsession and it gets amplified in a thinly traded market so who know where this goes in the short term , eventually dwindling inventories will become to low to ignore .
I'm not saying you should or shouldn't buy or sell . While the long term picture is intact and improving daily , the market is not acting rationally so the short term is a crapshoot (roll of the dice)