RE:Warren Buffet’s take on the stock marketEither TH-1902 works well enough to move on to phase 2 in one or more cancers or it won't. And we will know soon enough, conceivably as soon as tomorrow but much more likely sometime in August.
If it is shown to work, the stock will react positively but probably not as positively as we think it should since we are the only ones apparently paying attention at this point, having demonstrated our patience is legendary. But, we would not be this patient unless there was good reason to be so, and there is.
If TH -1902 works well enough to be considered a serious contender in treating one or more types of cancer, then it will become much easier to be patient as we will know there is a high probability of a bright future, maybe even bright enough for TH to turn into something like IMMU.
If TH-1902 does not work as well as needed help us remain patient, then TH will likely pivot to new trials on a new version, and at that point most TH shareholders will see their patience end. While the legacy drug sales are improving somewhat, those do not justify holding the stock. Under this more negative scenario, the stock price will get beat up pretty badly as so many investors, likely led by Soleus, will be looking to move on.
After that initial rush to the exits, the stock would likely rebound to the $2 area reflecting the value of the legacy drugs and the possibility that TH will trim costs significantly and earn a profit on the legacy drugs. Paul would likely depart the company as his compensation would no longer be justifiable (remember John Ross's departure after Europe shot down Egrifta). I imagine the CFO would be departing as well under such circumstances as would a number of the people recently brought on board who are clearly in it for success in cancer. The board might try to sell the company but there are no obvious buyers that I can see. I imagnie there would be quite a bit of turnover on the board too.
I am hopeful for a good outcome. TH-1902 should work as intended so it should see positive results. It is hard to come up with a reason why it would not work based on what we know, which is one reason Soleus, who understands the science better than I do, is a large shareholder. I am not sure when we will get good news on TH-1902, but I am pretty confident we will.
palinc2000 wrote:
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient"
This is certainly true over time for the stock market as a whole
Hopefully it could /might prove to be true in ThTX for those who remain patient..... Our patience has been tested for a long time