RE:RE:RE:RE:A Perspective on OilOldnagger wrote: As far as EV s go the following video is thought provoking and does a much better job of expressing my thoughts on the subject ,than I can !!
https://youtu.be/S1E8SQde5rk
Good reference....
As I think you know from reading my posts over the past year that I wouldn't disagree with this perspective and in fact would add other factors such as the ecological damage associated with wind and solar farms.
Having said all that, the point is the following -
1......right now oil is used to produce about 1% of the electricity in the US and as time goes on that low number will get lower. As the number of electric cars increase and there is less demand for gasoline and oil products, this loss will nowhere near being offset by oil being used to produce electricity. The same is not true for natural gas and hence my earlier point about NG producers being a better longer term investment than oil producers
2.....despite the points made in this TED talk (which I agree with), the fact of the matter is that the world is moving towards electric cars as a share of all cars on the road and will grow steadily each year at the expense of oil demand. So while the idea that moving to electric cars will save the planet is for intents and purposes a hoax, it doesn't change the reality that us as investors have to deal with in making investment decisions - hoax or not, there will be a lot more EVs on the road and less demand for oil in the transportation sector.
I have made my money over the decades in the stock market by being pragmatic and figuring out where the world is going and investing in companies that can take advantage of these trends and not concern myself whether the trend makes sense or not cause there is nothing I can do the change the trend. IMHO, fighting the trend or ignoring it because the underlying hypothesis of the trend is bullsheet is a good way to lose money or at best get below market returns....and that is the fundamental point I am making
So to summarize....
1.....over time investment in oil companies will likely yield lower than market returns
2....investment in gas producers will likely yield market to above market returns
3,,,,investment in electricity generating companies will yield above market returns
4.....investment in companies which assist companies in providing uninterrupted security of electricity supply will have well above average market returns
So in my pragmatic world, I will look to put my money where there growth prospects are the best and shun investments in companies that are fighting the trend. In private conversations, I will condem the trend as being wrongheaded and hope that at some point people come to their senses and if at some point in the future people do come to their senses and change the trend then I will change where I put my money to follow that new trend.
So for the energy side of my portfolio, that is how I am making my investment choices.