RE:Truse in Ukraine These rumours in the marketplace are just well placed bs to manipulate prices.
Even with a truce and even peace nobody will trust Russia.
I believe Russian production was actually up in May. One way or the other all that oil found a way to the end consumer.
The Russians are transferring cargos in the middle of the ocean. They ship diesel to an Opec country and then that country can ship its own diesel to other markets. Thus the game is played.
So I wonder if all Russian oil is already in the market one way or the other if there is a truce what’s that gonna do to help the total lack of OPEC spare capacity? What about the record deficits in oil storage worldwide? What if the Houthi successfully manage to finally blow-up a refinery with drones? I would argue none of this is really yet priced in.
Even if there is a recession remember OPEC was very disciplined in 20-21. They finally figured out you get more money with less work if you have a higher price.