Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

RE:RE:Dyke

[JoeStockIQ]

RoyKerr wrote:

my current view:

Buffington will tell us whether the geotechnical challenges are leathal or not. If leathal, there will be  a sale. A summer sale with current global macro, dead UG, and $3-4 copper = $1-$1.5.

If not leathal, we will get a real disclosure over what needs to be done, what the price is, how it will be financed, and a timeline.

As to finnance, Germany is deindustrialing itself and starting to militarize, so kfw is out as its money will be going to buy firewood and nuclear submarines.

Private placement is low probability because of copper price and risk off sentiment. A PP would see .28 shares + 1/2 warrants. This will hurt Pala as much as us, and will only be done if Pala is short $.

Assuming they are OK, the question is how will Pala leverage low SP, low copper price, and a need for financing? The obvious answer is either libor+2% bonds (not likely) or convertible debentures (most likely). I am going to assume $80M is needed (as s pull numbers), and that the bonds will be convertable to .3 shares in the future. This will bump the outstanding # to 6-700M, and give us a nav/float of around $1.10. Which should give us .7-.8 SP post announcement. If PP, share number will be 750-850 including warrants, so nav/float of .9 and sp of .5-.7.

I am keeping my current position of 101 000 shares with the expectation that the above represents the most likely outcomes, and that the SP right now does not reflect fair value.

wargamming the worst case and reason to sell now: major WW events lead to massive global contraction with sub $2 copper, which makes the whole thing uneconomic and worthless. These events would be things like Chinese invasion of Taiwan and direct conflict with US military, escalation of UKR conflict to include a hot war with NATO, and a collapse of the USD as GRC (because of an introduction of a BRICS+ collective currency and dumping of USTs), or some combination of the above. I have no way of assigning probabilities to them, but there they are.

Critiques welcome.

 

Okay Roy, you asked for it, here's a valid critique: How on Gawd's Green Earth can you possibly expect a "lethal" diagnosis lead to a sale of this distressed, money pit type property at a price 300%+ over current share price valuation??? That's some amazing logic there...A diagnosis of a dead patient leads to a 300%+ profit for its dead body parts!