"Emerging Mexican Base Metal and Precious Metal Producer....Coulior Capital published on June 22 a very good note about ATLY entitled "Emerging Mexican Base Metal and Precious Metal Producer Bringing 2nd Mine Online", the conclusions of the note show an exciting future for the company, with 2022 being the key year to transform the company into a producer with two mines in operation. Coulior prognostic an excellent return of 343% on the share price and in a conservative scenario net asset value (NAV), estimate an ATLY share price of up to CAD$1.46.
Coulior considered that investing in ATLY has a low risk since in Tahuehueto there is a large amount of mine underground development and mining and toll mill tests have been carried out on an industrial scale and in Campo Morado have successfully solved problems of stoppages. However, despite the exciting future that Coulior showed for ATLY, the share price dropped the next day to CAD$0.18, the 12-month low!
Coulior warns in the note that obviously these forecasts depend on the formal start of Tahuehueto and that the projected goals are met, they also qualify the Management of ATLY with a "Poor Mine Performance" and a "Managing Track Record as Moderate", which would go down if it is considered that the current Management does not have the experience indicated, since it began at the end of February 2020 with Campo Morado in operation and that the scale mining and toll processing tests in Tahuehueto were not carried out by then.
The poor performance of the current administration has been shown by the lack of results and fulfillment of goals, one example is the 100% dilution of the company by 100% going from 139,579,152 shares in 2019 to 277,890,452 to date, where the Guzmn – Accendo duo are the main beneficiaries and subscribers, controlling more than 35% of the company.
In Tahuehueto creates doubt in the mine operations, in the PFS of January 2017 it is considered Cut and Fill mining method and in the last PFS carried out in April 2022, carried out by the same person, it is changed to Sublevel Stopping, meaning a substantially increasing in the required mine development and causing greater dilution and less ore recovery, even more so if the ore production is in charge of an external contractor who charges for meter of development and mined tonnes.
I fully agree with the seriousness of Coulior's analysis and projections regarding the value of ATLY's assets and share price projections, which can be easily achieved by having an independent Board and a new responsible and experienced Management.