RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:One yr from now 15 plus!!jimgeorge wrote
All I'm saying is the market prices dividend paying companies largely on how secure their dividend seems. WCP didn't cut their divy to zero when everything crashed in 2020, or when oil prices tanked in 2014. CJ cut their divy to zero in 2020, they are just about to pay their first dividend in over two years. So the market is a little skeptical, hence the share price is low enough to create an 8% yield. Solid companies with good track records trade around a 4% now.
Nothing fundamental about CJ's operations or finances, the market isn't sold yet that their divy is solid long term...
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"All im saying is the market prices dividend paying companies largely on how secure their dividend seems."
If that is true 3 months from now when CJ has no debt left vs. WCP which will still have $2 billion in debt which companies dividend do you thing is more secure. In 3 months if oil prices stay in this range CJ will be debt free and could pay a dividend yielding 30% at todays shareprice. WCP will be paying a dividend yielding aprox. 4.5% rising to a yield of aprox. 8% one year from now if everything goes well. At that time WCP will still have aprox. $1.3 billion in debt while CJ if they keep paying the current 8% dividend will have no debt and aprox. $200 million in cash.
WCP never cut their dividend completely in 2020 because they cut their Capex by a lot just like CJ did. If the oil prices did not recover as fast as they did WCP would have cut their dividend to zero also. While it is good to look back at what happened in the past you also have to look at the bigger picture. At the time CJ cut their dividend to zero in 2020 they had aprox. $250 million in debt. As i said in 3 short months they will have no debt. That is a big differance as they will have no interest or principal debt payments to ever make again.
Again i am not trying to bash WCP i just believe that they should not have made this big a purchase at this time. They have done a few smaller deals in the last couple years and another one of them or nothing at all would have been my preferance.
It depends what an investor is looking for. In comparing WCP to CJ from what i can gather WCP should at current oil prices have Free Cashflow of aprox. $1.4 billion per year. The current market cap. for WCP is aprox. $5.6 billion. CJ should have Free Cashflow or aprox. $330 million their market cap. is aprox. $1.2 billion. That means that going by market cap. to Free Cashflow WCP and CJ are in the same ballpark in generating Free Cashflow. The major differance is that CJ will soon have zero debt while WCP will have $2 billion.
In comparing WCPs $2 billion debt vs. Free Cashflow to CJs soon to be zero debt vs. Free Cashflow that would be the equivalent of CJ currently having aprox. $450 million in debt.
Thanks but i will stick with zero.
Good Luck to all.