RE:RE:RE:Off day mathMohelJFox wrote
Thanks Sclarda, how the heck did I forget the currency conversion is beyond me. I like your Layout, very easy to follow step by step. You should do their books !
Imagine a 9c/ month dividend, and still having $14.5m left over every month for buybacks, cap-x, or increasing the dividend ?
What would 9c monthly do to our share price ? Obviously yields stay in the higher percentile lately as shareholders start to find us, or show reluctance to bite into what their eyes are telling them. Like you also mentioned, this is happening before 2023 ! We are talking less than 6 months easy, this will be trading no where near the single digits. Completely flabbergasted about how this is coming together. We will be Eric's "the one that got away" girlfriend/boyfriend, ya never know ?
Maybe even at that point shareholders wouldn't mind a little strategic takeover of company xyz to increase production? At least if that happened, you really could call it a "all cash sale" without having to call a bank !
Btw, what happens to fcf when wti hits 125-150/bbl after the midterms ?
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Thanks but i think my math is a little out. I bought a new pos computer and i am having trouble getting the sidebar to show up and move my posts which always seem quite long. The last part of my post quoting you was also not supposed to be there.
As for my math $32 million in extra cashflow from this quarter added to the $86 million from the first quarter is not $128 million but actually $118 million. Add the $12 million for the warrants exercised brings cashflow up to aprox. $130 million for the second quarter. Subtract the $22 million for Capex and that brings cashfow down to aprox. $108 million. The only number i am not sure of is how much more per barrel CJ pays in Royalties when oil goes from $94 in the first quarter to $108 in the second quarter. There are so many rules, incentives etc that it is hard to understand what we pay.
From the $108 million in cashflow from the quarter lets take a ballpark and guess that we pay an extra $8 million in Royalties for the quarter. That brings Free Cashflow down to aprox. $100 million for the quarter or aprox. $88 million of FREE Cashflow for the quarter not including the exercised warrants. Subtract the aprox. $100 million in FREE Cashflow from the debt of $147 million and CJ should have total debt of aprox. $47 million right about now. Even if they were to start paying a 9 cent monthly dividend tommorow they could still pay off the rest of the $47 millon in debt by the first couple weeks of the fourth quarter.
We have been throwing around some pretty big numbers for a small company like CJ for awhile now. $88 million in FREE Cashflow for the second quarter. For comparison CJ had aprox. $88 million in Cashflow for the whole year of 2018. And that was before Capex of aprox. $46 million leaving FREE Cashflow or aprox. $42 million for all of 2018. And the year before was even worse. In 2018 CJ also had aprox. $220 million in bank debt and now they have aprox. $47 million and in 3 months or less they will have zero. So we go from over $200 million in debt and $42 million for a whole year in FREE Cashflow to $47million in debt soon to be zero and aprox $350 million per year in FREE Cashflow.
Truly incredible numbers. Does anyone know of another small oil company that as of today could pay a dividend yielding 15% while still banking $175 million per year in Cash and is 3 months away from being debt free when they say they will increase the 15% dividend even more?
If anyone knows of one i am sure many on this board would like to know about it. As for me i am holding quite a bit of CJ stock at least for me. But everytime i do the numbers i want to go and buy some more of this Sh@it before the market finally sees what we have here starting in the next quarterly report.
Show me the money !!!!