RE:RE:RE:RE:Dangers of playing the swing tradeYes I agree the data are confusing...I am not very good at math, but if we read the Pressreleases & Quaterly Newsletters we can find enough data to have a plausible idea of were the CR% could be in Dec 2022 when TLT will make an application for BTD+AA.
From the 3Q2021 Quaterly, we know that 33 patients will have completed 450 days results in Dec, 2022.
18 optimized patients.
+3 patients from Phase1b study.
+12 Phase11 study undertreated patients.
Total= 33 patients.
From the Sept 24, 2020 NewsRelease...
We know that 5 out of 12 undertreated patients have been removed from the phase11 study.
Total 33-5= 28 patients will have completed the 450 days in Dec 2022.
Total=28 Patients.
18 Optimized patients.
From the 3Q2021 Quaterly, we know that the 18 optimized patients have a CR% potential of 94.4%(TLT will never reach that number).
Let's use a big margin of error of 15%.
94.4%-15%=79.4%CR potential
79.4%x 18 patients=14 CR patients.
Total= 14 CR patients/18 optimized patients.
Phase 1b.
Total CR patients= 2CR patients/3 patients.
Undertreated patients.
That leave us with 7 undertreated patients with an unknow CR%..except that from the 3Q2020 Quaterly we know that 3 out of 12 (25%) undertreated patients had a CR.
Meaning..3 out of these 7 undertreated patients have a CR.
Total=3 CR patients/7 undertreated patients.
Grand Total..
14CR+2CR+3CR=19CR patients/28 Patients.
In the 1Q2021 Quaterly, TLT said " Once a patient has achieved a CR, the duration of the CR remain fairly durable".
19CR patients/28 patients = 70%CR...we have a 450 days plausible 70% CR in Dec 2022.
Considering the very difficult patients that the FDA gave to TLT, anything over 60%CR is huge (50%CR would be more than acceptable).
Note; The 18 optimized patients 360 days CR% results could be very close.
All the above could explain DR.Arkady Mandel in June 21, 2022 PressRelease saying " Impressive preliminary results in the Phase11 NMIBC clinical study".
Impressive preliminary results. Time to accumulate.
Rumpl3StiltSkin wrote: Unfortunately most folks are bad at math.
But I do think there are enough good mathematicians(statisticians) that can figure TLT's value after the numbers come in for the ~25. I can imagine after BDT application, which I think TLT will announce by Christmas, those numbers will be crunched by market experts. We will have our SP run up before any monies $$ run out. Of course there are a few here on this board which will also crunch those numbers from every direction. So we'll all know. :-)
I agree it would be nice for average persons to be able to understand the potential here, especially based on the optimized group.
Oilminerdeluxe wrote: Why cant TLT make a table with just optimized patiens and one with both? How hard can it be? I can't be the only one having to guess just what the heck the data means. Maybe things will be much clearer once Roger is back. If he comes back