RE:Investors matter Let's not overreact here. Any investor (unless they bought today) hates seeing the share drop in tiny volume, drifting because of the uncertainty around a new trial. We hope to learn something but here is what we do know, and I think it means there's not a large probability of bad news, likely some good, but more likely the need for patience. We can hope they start the process of creating a much more positive narrative around the sort target in humans, safety issues and delivering it to tumors.
But we know:
- At a large dose of 300mg for a cycle there were no SAEs.
- We heard some patients were 2+ cycles and the chart showed one went 5-6 cycles of increasing strength and no SAEs for them.
-We heard there was some off site accumulation which is to be expected, but that it was similar to some other targeted drugs and can be tested and dealt with through what would be a normal chemo window of 3-6 cycles over 3 to 6 months. The issues were ocular and tingling in extremities. I don't know if it's the taxol or the PDC honing doing it. Regardless, we know at patients have gone through multiple doses and even if they started lower, the toxin accumulates in the cells. We also know normal cells only express 10% of the Sort1 in a cell and tumors have multiples more (the paper I cited said 9x more, of 90% of the Sort1 migrated to cell surface in certain tumors). Lastly, they have s huge window to try smaller more frequent dosing if they see proof the toxin is amplified in the tumor. They can play with the variables and still get loads of toxin in the tumor.
- we know taxol "around" a tumor kills cells, so it has to do the same if not better if placed directly in the cells.
-Sort1 has the advantage of also being present in the vascular channels tumors build so disrupts these tumor cells and the tumor stem cells.
It's probably way to early to actually have definitive proof on some of this science. So anything bad would have to be about safety and not efficacy since it's early for that and I think if something bad were happening at the 300mg level we would know since it's highly likely at least one patient has had 3+ cycles.
Theres so much happening in trials like this so there's a lot of guessing. It's up to management next week to start taking some of this extraordinarily shareholder unfriendly guessing out of the investment equation. Even the simple safety and 1a days will help. But the market is saying TH1902 is a failure and management should either confirm this or rebut it forcefully so it disappears from the equation until 1b is done and 2 starts.
Momo25 wrote: How could someone expect investors being interested in such stock, when the management reports its a quarterly earnings on Friday. 2 messages:
1 TH doesn't care about investors
2 TH doesn't have good news to present. or just no news.
That is why the share is collapsing. If there are bad news on Friday, the share will lose up to 40%