RE:Fundamentals Nope, fundamentals don't seem to matter at all to these short sellers beseiging YGR. That is the crux of the matter, I believe. Our $2.64 close today is nothing more than a bad joke.
Proportionately, if CPG had the same percentage of shares shorted as YGR does right now, then that would mean CPG would have 35.35M shorts instead of its current 12.86M shorts.
You know, I must say that it is fascinating how we both have entirely different comparison methods but still manage to come to a similar valuation amount...
I always compare non-div stocks by their price discount (or premium) to book value and dividend stocks by their yield vs the average yield of the market (and yield trumps any book value discount - always).
YGR q1 book value = $4.47 (so that is its fair value to my mind).
CPG just increased its dividend to 32 cents annually. Now, I track all the Canadian dividend stocks that I can find (that have 2 consecutive years of balance sheet improvement) and the average yield for all these companies is 4.07% (as of today). CPG's fair value would have to be $7.86 to get that same 4.07% yield. But it closed $1.57 higher than that, meaning the actual close price of $9.43 is a 20% premium to its fair value.
So if YGR also closed at a 20% premium to its fair value of $4.47, then its close price should have been $5.36, which is strikingly similar to your comparison number below! Especially since my book value information is lagging (the book value should be higher now - which means this comparison price I arrived at should also be slightly higher - closer to your number, I would have to say). Neat-oh.
Helloworld wrote:
Do they matter? CPG often considered undervalued CPG debt: 1.3 B vs 150M - about 9X YGR. CPG 2023 FCF at 100 WTI: about 1.6B vs 150M - about 11X YGR. CPG market cap: 5.4 B vs 230M - about 23X YGR. If it was a 11X multiple in line with debt and FCF then YGR would be trading at $5.50.