ResearchSeeker wrote: Longs and Momentum Traders,
My apologies to all for not contributing more, lately. Duty calls.
The board is again filled with pollution, as we can expect every time institutions, both market maker and fund managers/custodians, need something to happen, that is in their best interest. By no fault of our own, Baytex is a lesser concern in the big picture, and being high beta, we will make exaggerated, irrational moves at times, and there is nothing we can do about that, in the short term. Trading around a core position, can be done, if you can watch all day. I can’t.
The recent movements in oil price smell like March to me. The broader market reeks of sector rotations. To facilitate this sector rotation, large clients need bag holders to sell to, and this means us. Get us to rotate into something they are selling, and they can take from us what we already have. It is just simple supply and demand. SEC Rules were created to assure individuals, will always be the last to know. It appears legitimate, but illegal sharing of information is usually not investigated, because they don’t care if “little people” lose money.
The “Little People” or “Plebs” are really terms used to refer to individuals like us. The only defense we have, is to ignore all propaganda, and invest for the long term, in places where big money must avoid, because their participation with vast amounts of capital, could send a stock like Baytex to the moon in just one day. We are in the right place, and people are attempting to get us to move out of here. It gives me confidence in my investment, instead of fear!
Be confident, and stay long. We are only a by-product in the bigger picture of coming events. High oil prices mean many companies, in a lot of different sectors, might not make their numbers, and they will blame oil and fuel prices for their failures, instead of admitting their incompetence, which put them in that position. Oil prices have been oscillating longer than I have been alive, and there is no reason at all, to believe that will ever change. Debt servicing is going to fail with higher oil prices.
Banks need lower oil prices, so their loan debt can be serviced. Oil companies need prices high enough so they can continue as going concerns. THIS IS A MASSIVE CONFLICT! Supply and demand will be the reason oil prices go where they go, long term.
The other tug of war, is going to be interest rate policy, of central banks around the world. Raise rates and crash markets, or lower rates, and kill the consumers with inflation. Those who contribute the most politically, will probably win this tug of war. We have seen prior interest rate hikes, only to see a quick reversal. Before the tech wreck of the early 2000s, with Greenspan, and a CNBC briefcase indicator, have we ever seen rate hikes that persisted. That was over twenty years ago, and the national debt/GDP was much smaller then.
Politicians have an election to RIG, I mean WIN, in November. We all know they are incompetent, or we would not be in the mess we face now. It is intelligent to believe political outcomes are being calculated, so in November they will know how best to rig them. It was done last time, and nobody is in prison for it. The rest we are seeing, is just hot air to keep people from exploding. It will be rigged again, or used as an opportunity for a take-down, which could get dangerous.
Either way, Baytex is winning. Take the stock price down with propaganda and tricks, and Baytex shareholders get more reductions in shares, via buyback, for the Capex available that day. Take the share price up, and our portions increase in value.
I say, go full Livermore-ian, and not full-retard, as suggested by U.S. hero Tanto Peronto, of 13 hours in Bengazi, Libia fame. Stay long and be strong, or be right and sit tight!
It’s gonna get bumpy out there, expect it. Avoid daily charts, look at weekly or monthly instead.
Have a great weekend board,
RS
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