BBDB859 wrote: Hey LE.
Sorry for the delayed response.
Ya I'm old when it comes to Financial Statements. To me it's FCF. So positive Free Cashflow or Profit is anything left over after Paying the Interest on the LTD.
Now, I don't know what conversation or post you are reffering to. But I know how I think. So if I said that?
This is what I was thinking when I said that. So your answer for 2021. Take the Aprox: $680M of EBITDA they showed for 2021 - (minus) the LTD interest of say $500M (+ or -) = $180M of positive FCF. I may have said $150M, because of some other expenditures for the 2021 year of say another $30M for something else and I rounded it down to a solid $150M. You have to understand, that the real +FCF or profit, for 2021 would have been $230M after paying Interest & Taxes. So this is what I meant by profit for 2021 for a normal 2021. Not the kind of 2021 we just had. The Loss shown reflects the one time Capex/PPE for the years of 2021/22.
I know you don't want to hear this. But 2021 & 2022 are not normal years. Because they have huge commitments. on the PP&E and a heavy Capex for all the Investment needed to put the PURE PLAY in a position to be a money making machine. I estimated according to what we were told by BD & EM from earnings calls in 2021, that both 2021 & 2022 combined we would have about $650M to $700M in PPE & Capex combined. To make this transition to a Pure Play that is going to be relatively Recession proof, they had to spend the money. The good thing is that 2022 is nearly over too.
In reality 2023 when the Capex + PP&E Expenditures will get back to normal. I expect FCF/EBITDA for 2023 to get back to normal, and then EBITDA will all be useable minus about $100M of unaccounted Capex minus the LTD interest of course too.. So if EBITDA/FCF is closer to $1B from what I expect for 2022 and then $1.3B for 2023 FCF/EBITDA. That leaves a lot of +FCF/Profit after the Interest payment of $430M for every year after 2022. The Bomber management was asked in Q4/2022 by Goldman sacks analyst Seth---, what would Capex be in 2023? And BD & EM said less than $100M. So the rest will be useable after Interest paid
So when we start getting those high EBITDA's/FCF's of $1.2B - just $100M Capex - the $430M in LTD Interest. You see where this is going for Profit & +FCF.
Hope I've answered your Question.
Luckyeleven wrote: I thought it was clear and Luke explained to you and you said you were good with that. I clearly wrote shares and debt so thought no more of an explanation was needed. Also it all started with me asking a question that you didn't answer and went on some tangent on your choosing. Next time I will be more specific with you. I have one question you never answered to another poster is why did you claim a profit of 150 million in 2021 when it was a loss. No other details please just answer the one question. I don't need deflection talking about Pearson and Capex and so on. One shouldn't ask from others that they are not willing to do themselves. Like you said discuss with no mud slinging and I am fine with that.
BBDB859 wrote: LE.
I just have 1 question to ask u right now. Why couldn't you answer this question when I asked you yesterday?????????? Let me understand why does it takes 1 (one) full day of posting Back & Forth with you, to get you to tell me, what it was that you meant by saying "Shares and debt is $8B"???? I asked you 3 times last night. You finally answered me today. What am I supposed to do with that answer today? I don't even remember how you used it in the post yesterday.
Look how simple todays exchange was, with ER. I asked, and you answered. ER is Earning Report u said.
This posting here isn't rocket science. Tell people what you mean. Had you told me what u meant yesterday? This discussion would have taken a whole different direction. I asked u 3 times yesterday to explain yourself. It's not that difficult. It really is frustrating with you sometimes. Everything, doesn't have to be mud slinging
As for the rest of your qualms about me, in your post bellow? Let's just agree to disagree about who aggrevates who. Let's just keep posting real, and truthful. If u have a problem about me posting on certain things, or you think I may have said something wrong, then let's discuss it normally. My door is always open.
Luckyeleven wrote: Look 859 I stopped counting how many times you said you had me on ignore and telling others to put me on ignore as well lol and here you are. Never posted the debt to be 8 million and YOU misuderstood the post and now you are here lying when you say you hate liars lol. Don't make up stories of assumptions like your other buddies and post BS. I have never intentionally lied on this board believe it or not. I have my opinions you guys have yours. For the last time shares and debt worth about 8 billion, can you not understand that? If there was a buyout the buyer would have to assume the debt and pay for the outstanding shares, why is that so hard to understand for you? You have mde many false claims in the past and when brought up you deny them or say you are misunderstood. Keep it real! Anyone is entitled to post what they want here bullish or bearish comments should be welcomed as a balance helps one reflect or what's the point. This is what makes a market not all the sheep in one direction. I noticed a bunch of permabulls stopped posting here and now a handful left if that. Folks get sick and tired of taking a beating and either sell or just stop participating.
BBDB859 wrote: I didn't tell you to stop posting, or that your posts don't have some value. Nor do I call you a short, unless I think you're spreading lies for your gain. I must have gotten that feeling from somewhere in your posting habits since you got here.
Just don't post lies or false/half truths. I don't like LIARS. PB is one of them. Opinions on the SP are always welcome with a reason for your conclusion. I just don't want to feel compelled to single people out, that are lying when they know better. I think you're one of those who should know better, when you're posting that the LTD is $8B, or that the Bomber is going under, or any other D&G examples that you can think about posting.
The Star exchange taught me that you were a long trader as well, and my conclusion with you was that you know what you are doing with your short position. Did u sell your Long position too? No one really knows the selling & buying trend or shifts, but if you can see the relentless selling trading into the pop, then you can see the WAR going on between those that want to control the SP and those who want to accumulate. That's why I said this SP hasn't settled yet, and it won't till Q2/2023. I'm so surprised to see that you are a BULL as well on the Bomber. That u want the SP to pop. That's what I'm saying here. That, a lot of Retail, will see the value of this company from now till Q2/2023
Luckyeleven wrote: BTW many reads on my posts so enough are interested imo. If you are not or feel I bring no value here hit the ignore like I did on the ones that just like to insult and fight. Lowest close in over a year, sad but true. Remember last week how you agreed with Star and your other friends here about bomber being on an upswing and told me I should pay attention to them lol. On every little pop I see relentless selling and you said I am taking any profits too early and should listen to others. Don't blame or even insinuate that it's because I am short or trying to buy cheap shares. I don't control the SP and would love to see the bomber pop big time like everyone else here. Anyway tomorrow is a new day.
BBDB859 wrote: Please LE. Give it a rest with your Doom & Gloom shite.
What does the SP Manipulation of the MM's & Shorts, have to do with the health of the company. Bombardier is as healthy as it's ever been. The only way out of this is simple. Q2/2023 has to get here, very soon. How do you make time go faster?? You don't. That's why I said. Let these Shorters & Manipulators have their way with the SP up till Q2/2023 Then & only then we do a R/S.
This company will show great EBITDA's from now on. The Revs are starting to climb, the margins will follow, and the +CFC's will follow them. So when EBITDA is the HIGHEST and the SP is at it's lowest, that's when you'll see the SP move upwards. The MM's aren't punishing the SP down, because of Bombardier's INEPTNESS as a company. The Opposite. Bombardier is the healthiest it's ever been. The Market trying to scare shakey hands to get the remaining shares after R/S at the cheapest possible price. They can only play this game for so long of course. Because there are MM's (Institutions) that are willng to cash in on their cheap shares purchased after they loaded up. That's when they'll let this SP climb wen they want, and they'll start to tell the truth of the health of Bombardier, & start promote the Bomber. I know for a fact, that I'll be loading up at the right SP. With such a low amount of shares out there it's now a mistake/Blunder, not to load up. The A's don't have this kind of volatility.
Luckyeleven wrote: Is they better get their chit together and house in order soon. This kind of action could scare customers away too! Who wants to buy an expensive biz jet that you would own for many years when you think about the company's survival? If investors have no trust it could trickle down to customers as well.