Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s): BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.

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Baytex Energy Corp > Sell Off, paper or delivery?

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Comment by BayStreetWolfTOon Jul 12, 2022 11:27am

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Post# 34818068

RE:Sell Off, paper or delivery?

Canukiwi, historically we run around ~ $20 on the 321 crack spread. We peaked around $60+ (this was ma pain at the pump)...we have seen some demand destruction (which we needed) which has brought down the crack spread to around ~$44 right now.

This would suggest the physical market is still tight...however as we know the futures "paper" market trades on sentiment and right now China, Recession, Fed Rate hike are dominating the news.

With all those headwinds we are trading around $97. I could see us getting back to pre-invasion numbers $92-93 (seeing the US/EU really had ZERO impact on Russia restrictions)

For me this puts us in the annualized FCF range of $700 million. Which is good for me for 2H 2022 (allows cheaper buybacks) which jumps to $1 billion or so in 2023.

For now just buying time using whatever divy money I get in the meantime.