BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Lina, no one really knows up or down. Anyone who says they do I wouldn't listen too
Here is what we have discovered so far.
Gas priced at $180-190 does create demand destruction (WTI + 321 Crack). This is where we were with $120 WTI + $65 123 Crack
Now historically if we get to a $20 321 Crack that suggests $150-160 WTI is an upper limit.
For the downside it would be what limits Capex...which brought us to the current scenario
The unknown is
1. Geopolitics (Russia embargo not yet enforced. End of year)
2. China covid lockdowns (lifetime lockdown?)
3. SPR release (about 100 days left)
4. Weather (unknown impact)
5. Fed rate (do they stay hawkish or surprise dovish)
6. Recession (I assume we are already there)
7. Iran (probably not much to add but they keep shipping arms to Yemen so not sure if this will ever be a starter)
8. Venezuela (still a disaster)
9. Shale (rig counts and frac still really not growing)
10. Drilling supplies virtually non-existant until 2024 as many are already sold into 2023.. and all it takes is for one critical component to slow the drilling/competion progress for a long time..? Many more things but we just don't know where we will land for now.
Also 2023 many of the things above change...so now you have a price/time function....most look point in time...some look into the future.
Lina_Casa wrote: Key Words: "once a floor for the oil price is found" What is that number, and when will that number be established?