RE:RE:EV discussion With Temp1Totally agree with your conclusions. Please see highlighted part of your post in Yellow.
In fact what I have to add to your conclusions is. That, I think that the Bomber is going to be a real darling of the TSX in the next few years. Because once the EBITDA's start to go above $1B. There will be no stopping the company. The LTD will go down heavily, given the reduced spending cycle. The production will be ramped up. The Margins will start to increase dramatically. Once that happens and it's just around the corner. The Rating Agencies will have to re-assess their ratings as well.
Thanks for the verification Temp. Cheers
lb1temporary wrote: The whole sentence is : ''the market is saying that the EV is 6,5 B$''
That is not the real value of Bombardier. it's only an opinion. The today's market opinion.
As a long investor i'm sure that the real value is over the actual 20$. Let's time works.
In 2020, the SP was 10$ (26 cents Pre RS), was that the real value at that time? Surely not. The value was 40$ one year later; an 400% rise. No real facts justify that huge difference in only twelve months. Emotions.
The stock market is an anticipation game drove by facts and emotions. And more you are looking for the short term, less this value is accurate. Market are only right for the long term only (more facts, less emotions).
Actually, the market is driven by fear and uncertainty (emotions). That weigh on the SP. Will we have a recession with high rates for a while ? What could be the impact on Bombardier costs and sales ? More, this company was in deep trouble two years ago. The recovery is well done but what will be situation in 9 months ? And, are immute from an international financial crisis with high government indebtness after the pandemy? Each quarter results will give answers to these questions (facts ).
Usually, transactions of public companies are done with a prime of 20% to 40% over the SP. And transaction occurs only at the high of the market. Did you notice that there's no buyout transaction in the last 3 months?
The real value is the amount that an independent buyer is willing to give to buy a company. It will be based on the future profits. It's clearly over the actual 6,5 B$.
Bombardier have all the cash it need for years to come and the next reimbursment is in two years and a half. No need to sell or made a share offering. So, Bombardier is not on the market for now and trying to find the best method for a valuation is free for everyone, the only real test is the amount of a real transaction OR the SP over a long period.