RE:RE:Just my opinion cskhurasu wrote: It's about getting the work done...PEA to PFS to Environmental Assessment Certificate on an economic orebody. That's what you need for a partnership and a production decision. There is no short cut. to a deal unless you want your assest to be scooped for nothing. The risk reduction must be done first.
I would agree except that I just saw the post related to the Kinross acquisition of Great Bear for $1.85 Billion without even a maiden resource estimate. So I'm wondering if larger outfits are getting a bit edgy to gobble up resources they can't find themselves.
No way to tell, but the eventual Great Bear and Treaty Creek open pits could be similar in size, even though the initial Great Bear open pit looks limited in size relative to the overall deposit.
As a result I would not be surprised if a similar offer has already been made for Treaty Creek's roughly 15 million oz. Au in the Tudor open pit model. [ 12.7 million oz. Au in the initial resource estimate plus some ounces converted from Inferred to M&I during the 2021 drilling that haven't been announced yet]. If that offer was made I would hope for a refusal. Much more to learn about Treaty Creek.
At the same time, the Great Bear transaction gives us a baseline comparison perhaps. Assuming a similar buyout number for Treaty Creek, $1.85 Billion at 60% for Tudor's stake would be $1.11 B. At 220,233,000 shares fully diluted, that would be about $5/share.
For Teuton, 20% would be $370 Million. At about 59,750,000 shares fully diluted Teuton would get about $6.19/share. Add another $1.31/share for the value of the NSR (assuming 300,000 oz. per year of production at $1500/oz for the price of gold, 90% realization after costs and a P/E of around 20). In this exercise I see TUO at $7.50/share. By the end of 2025 I'm projecting a minimum of double the current resource estimate, or about 54.6 million oz. AuEq. That's based on five years of drilling at 30,000m per year to realize just under 5.5 million additional oz. Au per year. But the way these step-outs are hitting that number could easily increase.
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug